Climate change and carnivores: shifts in the distribution and effectiveness of protected areas in the Amazon

Abstract

Background: Carnivore mammals are animals vulnerable to human interference, such as climate change and deforestation. Their distribution and persistence are affected by such impacts, mainly in tropical regions such as the Amazon. Due to the importance of carnivores in the maintenance and functioning of the ecosystem, they are extremely important animals for conservation. We evaluated the impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of carnivores in the Amazon using Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Do we seek to answer the following questions: (1) What is the effect of climate change on the distribution of carnivores in the Amazon? (2) Will carnivore species lose or gain representation within the Protected Areas (PAs) of the Amazon in the future?

Methods: We evaluated the distribution area of 16 species of carnivores mammals in the Amazon, based on two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the year 2070. For the construction of the SDMs we used bioclimatic and vegetation cover variables (land type). Based on these models, we calculated the area loss and climate suitability of the species, as well as the effectiveness of the protected areas inserted in the Amazon. We estimated the effectiveness of PAs on the individual persistence of carnivores in the future, for this, we used the SDMs to perform the gap analysis. Finally, we analyze the effectiveness of PAs in protecting taxonomic richness in future scenarios.

Results: The SDMs showed satisfactory predictive performance, with Jaccard values above 0.85 and AUC above 0.91 for all species. In the present and for the future climate scenarios, we observe a reduction of potencial distribution in both future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), where five species will be negatively affected by climate change in the RCP 4.5 future scenario and eight in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The remaining species stay stable in terms of total area. All species in the study showed a loss of climatic suitability. Some species lost almost all climatic suitability in the RCP 8.5 scenario. According to the GAP analysis, all species are protected within the PAs both in the current scenario and in both future climate scenarios. From the null models, we found that in all climate scenarios, the PAs are not efficient in protecting species richness.

Keywords: Carnivora; Deforestation; Mammals; PA; SDM; Taxonomic richness.

Figure 1. Map of the study area.

Map of the Amazon Biome (solid light green color), corresponding to the study area. All protected areas (PA) of the Biome are represented on the map in solid dark green. The arc of deforestation is represented in striped form.

Figure 2. Measuring spatial dynamics.

Values in percent of potential distribution loss or gain by carnivore species. Graph in percent of the loss or gain of the potential distribution of each carnivore species. Values with the negative sign represent loss of spatial distribution and positive values represent gains. Species with loss/gain of potential distribution less than 5% are considered stable. More details can be found in Table S6.

Figure 3. Taxonomic richness of target carnivores.

Map of taxonomic species richness under all climate scenarios. Maps were generated from the overlapping SDMs (with forest remnant) of all species for each climate scenario, totaling 16 levels. Richness ranges from one species to 16 species together at the same site.