Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2023;27(9):767-774.
doi: 10.1007/s12603-023-1971-4.

Sex Specific Global Burden of Osteoporosis in 204 Countries and Territories, from 1990 to 2030: An Age-Period-Cohort Modeling Study

Z Zhu  1 , P Yu, Y Wu, Y Wu, Z Tan, J Ling, J Ma, J Zhang, W Zhu, X Liu
Affiliations

Sex Specific Global Burden of Osteoporosis in 204 Countries and Territories, from 1990 to 2030: An Age-Period-Cohort Modeling Study

Z Zhu et al. J Nutr Health Aging. 2023.

Abstract

Background: Osteoporosis is a highly prevalent disease with distinct sex pattern. We aimed to estimate the sex specific incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life (DALYs) years of osteoporosis between 1990 and 2019, with additional predictions from 2020 to 2034.

Methods: We collected osteoporosis disease burden data from the Global Burden of Disease study covering the years 1990 through 2019 in 204 countries and territories. The data included information on the number of incident cases of osteoporosis, DALYs, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) and age-standardized DALYs rates. Additionally, we performed an age-period-cohort analysis to forecast the burden of osteoporosis.

Results: The global number of incidence cases of osteoporosis, in 2019, reached 41.5 million cases. From 1990 to 2019, the low-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) region had the highest estimated annual percentage change in the world. Compared to males, female's ASIR and ASPR were all about 1.5 times higher than males for the same years in the same SDI regions. The projected global total number of incidence cases for osteoporosis between 2030 and 2034 is estimated to reach 263.2 million (154.4 million for females and 108.8 for males). Additionally, the burden in terms of DALYs is predicted to be 128.7 million (with 78.4 million for females and 50.3 million for males).

Conclusion: The global burden of osteoporosis is still increasing, mainly observed in high SDI countries. Females bear a burden 1.5 times higher than males in terms of incidence and DALYs. Steps should be taken to reduce the osteoporosis burden, especially in high SDI countries.

Keywords: Osteoporosis; disability-adjusted life years; estimated annual percentage change; global burden of disease; sex.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Age-standardized osteoporosis incidence (A), prevalence (B), and disability-adjusted life year (C) rates globally (red), and in high (green), high-middle (yellow), middle (purple), low-middle (baby-blue), and low (navy-blue) social-demographic index quintiles
Figure 2
Figure 2
The correlation of osteoporosis age-standard rate of incidence in 2019 and the socio-demographic index The blue line represents the average expected relationship between the socio-demographic index and the age-standard rate of incidences of osteoporosis based on values from all countries from 1990 to 2019. ASR: age-standardized rate; SDI: social-demographic index.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The age-standard incidence rate of osteoporosis in 2019 for males (A) and females (B) in 204 countries and territories Countries with an extreme age-standard rate of incidence were lined out and shown in the partially enlarged map.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Per five-year forecasts of the number of cases (A) (using scientific notation) and the age-standard rate of incidence of osteoporosis (B) at different locations of osteoporosis
Figure 5
Figure 5
Per five-year forecasts of the number of disability-adjust life years (A) (using scientific notation) and the age-standard rate of disability-adjust life years of osteoporosis (B) at different locations of osteoporosis
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Lane JM. Osteoporosis. Medical prevention and treatment. Spine (Phila Pa 1976) 1997;22(24):32s–37s. 9431642 10.1097/00007632-199712151-00006 Dec 15. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Lane NE. Epidemiology, etiology, and diagnosis of osteoporosis. Am J Obstet Gynecol. 2006;194(2):S3–11. 16448873 10.1016/j.ajog.2005.08.047 Feb. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Incidence & Prevalence Database (IPD) https://www.tdrdata.com/ipd/ipd_init
    1. Salari N, Ghasemi H, Mohammadi L, et al. The global prevalence of osteoporosis in the world: a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis. J Orthop Surg Res. 2021;16(1):609. 34657598 8522202 10.1186/s13018-021-02772-0 Oct 17. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Cousin E, Duncan BB, Stein C, et al. Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. 2022;10(3):177–192. 10.1016/S2213-8587(21)00349-1 - DOI - PMC - PubMed

Publication types