Radiomics Nomogram with Added Nodal Features Improves Treatment Response Prediction in Locally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Multicenter Study

Abstract

Objective: We aimed to develop and validate a radiomics nomogram and determine the value of radiomic features from lymph nodes (LNs) for predicting pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) in patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

Methods: In this multicenter retrospective study, eligible participants who had undergone NCRT followed by radical esophagectomy were consecutively recruited. Three radiomics models (model^T, model^LN, and model^TLN) based on tumor and LN features, alone and combined, were developed in the training cohort. The radiomics nomogram was developed by incorporating the prediction value of the radiomics model and clinicoradiological risk factors using multivariate logistic regression, and was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve, validated in two external validation cohorts.

Results: Between October 2011 and December 2018, 116 patients were included in the training cohort. Between June 2015 and October 2020, 51 and 27 patients from two independent hospitals were included in validation cohorts 1 and 2, respectively. The radiomics model^TLN performed better than the radiomics model^T for predicting pCR. The radiomics nomogram incorporating the predictive value of the radiomics model^TLN and heterogeneous after NCRT outperformed the clinicoradiological model, with an area under the curve (95% confidence interval) of 0.833 (0.765-0.894) versus 0.764 (0.686-0.833) [p = 0.088, DeLong test], 0.824 (0.718-0.909) versus 0.692 (0.554-0.809) [p = 0.012], and 0.902 (0.794-0.984) versus 0.696 (0.526-0.857) [p = 0.024] in all three cohorts.

Conclusions: Radiomic features from LNs could provide additional value for predicting pCR in ESCC patients, and the radiomics nomogram provided an accurate prediction of pCR, which might aid treatment decision.