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. 2023 Sep 28;23(1):1875.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-023-16304-4.

The epidemiology of varicella and effectiveness of varicella vaccine in Ganyu, China: a long-term community surveillance study

Lingxian Qiu #  1   2 , Sheng Liu #  3 , Minglei Zhang #  3 , Guohua Zhong  1   2 , Siying Peng  1   2 , Jiali Quan  1   2 , Hongyan Lin  1   2 , Xiaowen Hu  1   2 , Kongxin Zhu  1   2 , Xingcheng Huang  1   2 , Junchao Peng  4 , Yue Huang  1   2 , Shoujie Huang  1   2 , Ting Wu  1   2 , Jinbo Xu  3 , Zifang Dong  3 , Qi Liang  5 , Wei Wang  6   7 , Yingying Su  8   9 , Jun Zhang  1   2 , Ningshao Xia  1   2   10
Affiliations

The epidemiology of varicella and effectiveness of varicella vaccine in Ganyu, China: a long-term community surveillance study

Lingxian Qiu et al. BMC Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: The real-world data of long-term protection under moderate vaccination coverage is limited. This study aimed to evaluate varicella epidemiology and the long-term effectiveness under moderate coverage levels in Ganyu District, Lianyungang City, Jiangsu Province.

Methods: This was a population-based, retrospective birth cohort study based on the immunization information system (IIS) and the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS) in Ganyu District. Varicella cases reported from 2009 to 2020 were included to describe the epidemiology of varicella, and eleven-year consecutive birth cohorts (2008-2018) were included to estimate the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of varicella by Cox regression analysis.

Results: A total of 155,232 native children and 3,251 varicella cases were included. The vaccination coverage was moderate with 37.1%, correspondingly, the annual incidence of varicella infection increased 4.4-fold from 2009 to 2020. A shift of the varicella cases to older age groups was observed, with the peak proportion of cases shifting from 5-6 year-old to 7-8 year-old. The adjusted effectiveness of one dose of vaccine waned over time, and the adjusted VE decreased from 72.9% to 41.8% in the one-dose group.

Conclusions: The insufficient vaccination coverage (37.1%) may have contributed in part to the rising annual incidence of varicella infection, and a shift of varicella cases to older age groups occurred. The effectiveness of one dose of varicella vaccine was moderate and waned over time. It is urgent to increase varicella vaccine coverage to 80% to reduce the incidence of varicella and prevent any potential shift in the age at infection in China.

Keywords: Community surveillance; Epidemiology; Long-term; Vaccine effectiveness; Varicella.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Study cohort enrollment process. The enrollment process of this study and the distribution of the enrollment population according to 6 scenarios with different vaccination backgrounds and outcomes
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Vaccine coverage of varicella in each birth cohort from 2008 to 2018. *Vaccination rates are stratified by different birth cohorts, and based on the analysis group of varicella effectiveness
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
The epidemiological features and vaccine coverage of varicella. A The annual incidence of varicella from 2009 to 2020. B Age distribution of the number of varicella cases from 2009 to 2020. C The age distribution of the constituent ratio of varicella cases from 2009 to 2020. *The results were based on an epidemiological analysis
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
The cumulative incidence of varicella infection
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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