DJS is a consultant for AstraZeneca. All other authors declare no competing interests. pCMV-dR8.2 dvpr was a gift from Bob Weinberg (Addgene plasmid #8455; RRID:Addgene_8455). pBOBI-FLuc was a gift from David Nemazee (Addgene plasmid #170674; RRID:Addgene_170674). We thank Roy A Ehling and Sai T Reddy for providing plasmids for antibodies S309 and LY-CoV1404, and Niklas K Björkström for providing tixagevimab and cilgavimab. We gratefully acknowledge all data contributors, including the authors and their originating laboratories responsible for obtaining the specimens, and their submitting laboratories that generated the genetic sequence and metadata and shared via the GISAID Initiative the data on which part of this research is based. This project was supported by funding from SciLifeLab's Pandemic Laboratory Preparedness programme to BM (VC-2022-0028) and JA (VC-2021-0033); from the Erling Persson Foundation (2021 0125) to BM and GBKH; and by the G2P-UK National Virology consortium funded by the Medical Research Council/UK Research and Innovation to TPP (grant MR/W005611/1).