Building on a novel bootstrapping modelling technique to predict region-wide critical care capacity requirements over the next decade

Abstract

We have previously described an open-source data-driven modelling technique that has been used to model critical care resource provision as well as expanded to elective surgery and even whole-hospital modelling. Here, we describe the use of this technique to model patient flow and resource use across the West Yorkshire Critical Care Network, with the advantage that recommendations can be made at an individual unit level for future resource provision, taking into account changes in population numbers and demography over the coming decade. We will be using this approach in other regions around the UK to help predict future critical care capacity requirements.

Keywords: critical care; health planning; modelling; simulation.

Fig 1.

Simplified overview of model and data. CCMDS = Critical Care Minimum Dataset; ONS = Office for National Statistics.

Fig 2.

Resource requirements with 2029 population showing 90%, 95% and 98% quantiles. L3 = level 3.