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. 2022:38:100456.
doi: 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100456. Epub 2022 Aug 23.

Depopulation, super aging, and extreme heat events in South Korea

Oh Seok Kim  1   2   3 , Jihyun Han  4 , Kee Whan Kim  5 , Stephen A Matthews  6   7 , Changsub Shim  8
Affiliations

Depopulation, super aging, and extreme heat events in South Korea

Oh Seok Kim et al. Clim Risk Manag. 2022.

Abstract

South Korea's population is declining and its composition changing, associated with lowest-low fertility rates and rapid aging (super aging). When estimating changes in future exposure to extreme heat events (EHE), events that are predicted to be intensified due to climate change, it is important to incorporate demographic dynamics. We analyze business-as-usual (BAU) population and climate scenarios-where BAU refers to no significant change in current processes and trends in either domain-from 2010 to 2060 for South Korea. Data for both BAU scenarios are spatially linked and used to measure and identify national and sub-national and age-group specific EHE exposure. The results reveal an increasing exposure to EHE over time at the national level, but this varies widely within the country, measured at the municipal level. The most intensive exposure levels will be in the decade ending in 2040 driven by high estimated severe EHE. Sub-nationally, Seoul will be the most vulnerable municipality associated with super aging, while severe EHE not demographic factors will be relevant in Daegu, the second-most vulnerable metropolitan area. By 2060, national estimates suggest the older population will be up to four times more exposed to EHE than today. While the population of South Korea will decline, the rapid aging of the population ensures that specific regions of the country will become exceedingly vulnerable to EHE.

Keywords: Business-as-usual population; Climate change; Extreme heat events; Population aging; Population dynamics; climate scenarios.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
National population change from 2030 to 2060 for the total population and the older populations aged ≥65, aged ≥75, and aged ≥85.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Small-area population differences between 2020 and 2060 for (a) the total population, (b) the older populations aged ≥65, (c) aged ≥75, and (d) aged ≥85.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Geographical distribution of EHE for the decade (a) 2020 and the difference maps for (b) 2020–2030, (c) 2020–2040, (d) 2020–2050, and (e) 2020–2060.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
National trend of decennial average EHE intensity for each month from the decade 2030 to 2060.
Figure 5.
Figure 5.
National trend of exposure to EHE for the total population and the older populations aged ≥65, aged ≥75, and aged ≥85 from the decade 2030 to 2060.
Figure 6.
Figure 6.
Geographical distribution of exposure to EHE for the total population for the decade (a) 2030, (b) 2040, (c) 2050, and (d) 2060.
Figure 7.
Figure 7.
Geographical distribution of exposure to EHE for the older population aged ≥65 for the decade (a) 2030, (b) 2040, (c) 2050, and (d) 2060.
Figure 8.
Figure 8.
Geographical distribution of exposure to EHE for the older population aged ≥75 for the decade (a) 2030, (b) 2040, (c) 2050, and (d) 2060.
Figure 9.
Figure 9.
Geographical distribution of exposure to EHE for the older population aged ≥85 for the decade (a) 2030, (b) 2040, (c) 2050, and (d) 2060.
Figure 10.
Figure 10.
Decomposition of aggregate projected change in exposure into climate, population, and interaction effects.
Figure 11.
Figure 11.
Percent increase of EHE exposure from the decade 2030 to 2060 with respect to the decade 2020 for the older populations aged ≥65, aged ≥75, and aged ≥85.
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