Predictors of New Onset Atrial Fibrillation Burden in the Critically Ill

Abstract

Introduction: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in the intensive care unit (ICU) setting and has been associated with adverse outcomes. In this context, there is increasing research interest in AF burden as a predictor of subsequent adverse events. However, the pathophysiology and drivers of AF burden in the ICU are poorly understood. This study sought to evaluate the predictors of AF burden in critical illness-associated new-onset AF (CI-NOAF).

Methods: Out of 7,030 admissions in a tertiary general ICU between December 2015 and September 2018, 309 patients developed CI-NOAF. AF burden was defined as the percentage of monitored time in AF, as extracted from hourly interpretations of continuous ECG monitoring. Low and high AF burden groups were defined relative to the median AF burden. Clinical, laboratory, and echocardiographic parameters were extracted, and multivariable modelling with binary logistic regression was performed to evaluate for independent associations with AF burden.

Results: The median AF burden was 7.0%. Factors associated with increased AF burden were age, dyslipidaemia, chronic kidney disease, increased creatinine, CHA2DS2-VASc score, ICU admission diagnosis category, amiodarone administration, and left atrial area (LAA). Factors associated with lower AF burden were previous alcohol excess, burden of ventilation, the use of inotropes/vasopressors, and beta blockers. On multivariate analysis, increased LAA, chronic kidney disease, and amiodarone use were independently associated with increased AF burden, whereas beta blocker use was associated with lower AF burden.

Conclusion: Left atrial size and chronic cardiovascular comorbidities appear to be the primary drivers of CI-NOAF burden, whereas factors related to acute illness and critical care intervention paradoxically did not appear to be a substantial driver of arrhythmia burden. Further research is needed regarding drivers of AF and the efficacy of rhythm control intervention in this unique setting.

Keywords: Atrial fibrillation burden; Critical illness; Left atrial size.

Fig. 1.

Study screening and selection process.

Fig. 2.

Distribution of AF burden among ICU admissions with CI-NOAF.

Fig. 3.

Proposed pathophysiological model of critical illness-associated new-onset AF (CI-NOAF). While previous studies report that CI-NOAF initiation is primarily driven by factors related to acute illness and organ support interventions, the present study suggests the subsequent burden of AF appears to be primarily related to underlying atriopathy and chronic cardiovascular disease (blue arrows).