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. 2023 Aug 25;42(3):383-391.
doi: 10.5937/jomb0-39602.

Mathematical model of aging in COVID-19

Olivera Jovanikić  1 , G Stevanović  2 , Boban Đorđevic  1 , Milan Jovanović  1 , Milan Lepić  1
Affiliations

Mathematical model of aging in COVID-19

Olivera Jovanikić et al. J Med Biochem. .

Abstract
in English, Serbian

Background: The aim was examination of the intimamedia thickness of carotid arteries in COVID-19 infection.

Methods: In 50 patients, the thickness of the intimomedial complex (IMT) in the common carotid arteries was measured. The values were compared with the control group in 2006-9. The condition of the lungs was assessed by ultrasound score (It score) (0-42) as mild (0-14) or mediumsevere (15-28) Covid. IMT thickening risk factors and the value of fibrinogen, IL-6 and CRP were recorded. Two IMT prediction models were formed. The socio-epidemiological model predicts the development of IMT based on epidemiological factors. Apart from these factors, the second model also includes the values of the mentioned biomarkers.

Results: It score 20±6, IMT values right: median 0.99 mm, p25=0.89, p75=1.14; left: 1±0.22 mm. Control: IMTright: median 0.7 mm, p25=0.68 mm; p75=0-9 mm; left: median=0.75 mm, p25=0.6 mm, p75=1.0 mm. The group/control difference is highly significant. Epide mio - logical model: logit (IMT)= 4.463+(2.021+value for GEN)+(0.055x AGE value)+(-3.419x RF value)+(-4.447x SM value)+(5.115x HTA value)+(3.56x DM value)+ (22.389x LIP value)+(24.206x CVD value)+(1.449x other value)+(-0.138x It score value)+(0.19xBMI value). Epidemiological-inflammatory model: logit (IMT)=5.204+ (2.545x GEN value)+(0.076x AGE value)+(-6.132x RF value)+(-7.583x SM value)+(8.744x HTA value)+(6.838x DM value)+(25.446x LIP value)+(28.825x CVD value)+ (2.487x other value)+(-0.218xIt score value)+(0.649x BMI value) +(-0.194x fibrinogen value)+(0.894x IL-6 value)+(0.659x CRP value). Values for both models Exp(B)=4.882; P of sample=0.83; logit=-0.19; OR= 23.84; model accuracy for the first model 87% and for the second 88%; Omnibus test of the first model c2=34.324; p=0.000; reliability coefficient -2LogLH=56.854; Omnibus test of the second model c2=39.774; p=0.000; and -2LogLH=51.403.

Conclusions: The ageing of blood vessels in COVID-19 can be predicted.

Uvod: Cilj je bio ispitivanje debljine intimomedijalnog kompleksa karotidnih arterija u COVID-19 infekciji.

Metode: Kod 50 pacijenata sa PCR(+) testom merena je debljina intimomedijalnog kompleksa (IMT) u zajedničkim karotidnim arterijama. Vrednosti su upoređene sa kontrolnom grupom 2006-9 God. Stanje pluća ocenjeno je ultrasonografskim skorom (It skor) (0-42) lak (0-14) ili srednje težak COVID-19 (15-28). Beleženi su riziko faktori zadebljanja IMT i vrednost fibrinogena, IL-6 i CRP. Formirana su dva modela predviđanja IMT. Socio-epidemiološki model predviđa razvoj IMT na osnovu epidemioloških faktora. Drugi model, osim ovih faktora uključuje i vrednosti navedenih biomarkera.

Rezultati: It skor pluća 20±6 i vrednosti IMT desno mediana 0,99 mm, p25=0,89 mm, p75=1,14 mm i levo: medijana = 0,75 mm, p25=0,6 mm, p75=1.0 mm. Kontrolna grupa IMT desno mediana 0,7 mm, p25= 0,68 mm, p75=0,9 mm i levo mediana 0,75 mm, p25=0,6 mm, p0,75=1 mm (nema razlike strana p=0,864). Razlika grupa/kontrola je visoko značajna (p=0,000). Epidemiološki model: logit (IMT)=4,463+(2,021+vrednost za GEN)+(0,055x vrednost za AGE)+(-3.419x vrednost za RF)+(-4.447x vrednost za SM)+(5,115x vrednost za HTA)+(3,56x vrednost za DM)+(22,389x vrednost za LIP)+(24,206x vrednost za KVO)+(1,449x vrednost za drugo)+(-0,138x vrednost za It skor)+(0,19x vrednost za BMI). Epidemiološko-inflamatorni model: logit(IMT)= 5,204+(2,545x vrednost GEN)+(0,076x vrednost za AGE)+(-6,132x vrednost za RF)+(-7,583x vrednost za SM)+(8,744x vrednost za HTA)+(6,838x vrednost za DM)+(25,446x vrednost za LIP) + (28,825x vrednost za KVO)+(2,487 x vrednost za drugo)+(-0,218x vrednost za It skor)+ (0,649x vrednost za BMI)+(-0,194x vrednost za fibrinogen)+(0,894x vrednost za IL-6) + (0,659x vrednost za CRP). Vrednosti za oba modela Exp(B)=4,882; P uzorka=0,83; logit=-0,19; OR=23,84; preciznost modela 87% i 88% (prvi, drugi model, redom); Omnibus test prvog modela c2=34,324; p=0,000; koeficijent verodostojnosti -2LogLH=56,854; Omnibus test drugog modela c2=39,774; p=0,000; -2LogLH= 51,403.

Zaključak: Starenje krvnih sudova u COVID-19 se može predvideti.

Keywords: COVID-19 virus; carotid. C-reactive protein; fibrinogen; interleukin-6; intima-media thickness; mathematical model; pneumonia; ultrasonography.

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Conflict of interest statement

All the authors declare that they have no conflict of interest in this work.Conflict of Interest: The authors stated that they have no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this article.

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