Abstract

PIP: This paper discusses fertility trends in Singapore during the decade 1975-1984. Fertility 1st dropped below the replacement level in 1975 when the gross reproduction rate reached 1.006 and fell further to the low of 0.772 in 1984. During the same period all of the 3 main races, Chinese, Malays, and Indians, experienced fertility below replacement level. The shortfall in the number of births required to ensure replacement fertility increased during the decade until it approached 1/4 in 1984. This indicates that Singapore has more than achieved its national demographic goal of fertility to attain 0 growth and to stabilize the population in the future. This study shows that the newly introduced population policies designed to improve the quality of the population may well in practice lead to fewer births. A declining population in the 21st century is very likely.