How Does Climate Change Affect Tomato and Okra Production? Evidence from Nigeria

Abstract

This study examined the impacts of climate change on okra and tomato yields. Fertilizer consumption and credit to the crop sector were considered as covariates in the analysis. Time-series data, spanning a period of 40 years, were obtained from various sources. An autoregressive distributed lag model was applied to analyze short- and long-term impacts of climate change and agricultural inputs on okra and tomato yields. Not all variables were stationary at levels (order zero), but they were all significant at first difference, indicating the presence of cointegration. The Bound's test F-ratio was statistically significant and implied the presence of long- and short-term relationships among the variables studied. The mean temperatures had negative impacts on okra and tomato yields in both the short and long terms. Credit guaranteed to the crop sector had positive short- and long-term impacts on tomato yield; fertilizer consumption had a negative long-term impact on okra yield. Our study concludes that climate change, particularly rising temperature, impacts herbaceous fruit crop production in Nigeria. Therefore, we recommend that breeding and disseminating climate-smart tomato and okra varieties will help fruit crop farmers respond to rising temperatures.

Keywords: autoregressive distributed lag model; climate; credit; fertilizer; okra yield; tomato yield.

Figure 1

Cumulative sum and cumulative sum of square tests plots for parameter stability for okra and tomato yield models.