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. 2023 Oct 16;23(1):688.
doi: 10.1186/s12879-023-08664-4.

Comparison of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) incidence data from the novel LeCellPHIA participatory surveillance system with COVID-19 case count data, Lesotho, July 2020 - July 2021

Sarah D Francis  1 , Gerald Mwima  2 , Molibeli Lethoko  2 , Christiana Chang  3 , Shannon M Farley  3   4 , Fred Asiimwe  5 , Qixuan Chen  6 , Christine West  7 , Abigail R Greenleaf  3   4
Affiliations

Comparison of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) incidence data from the novel LeCellPHIA participatory surveillance system with COVID-19 case count data, Lesotho, July 2020 - July 2021

Sarah D Francis et al. BMC Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Background: While laboratory testing for infectious diseases such as COVID-19 is the surveillance gold standard, it is not always feasible, particularly in settings where resources are scarce. In the small country of Lesotho, located in sub-Saharan Africa, COVID-19 testing has been limited, thus surveillance data available to local authorities are limited. The goal of this study was to compare a participatory influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance system in Lesotho with COVID-19 case count data, and ultimately to determine whether the participatory surveillance system adequately estimates the case count data.

Methods: A nationally-representative sample was called on their mobile phones weekly to create an estimate of incidence of ILI between July 2020 and July 2021. Case counts from the website Our World in Data (OWID) were used as the gold standard to which our participatory surveillance data were compared. We calculated Spearman's and Pearson's correlation coefficients to compare the weekly incidence of ILI reports to COVID-19 case count data.

Results: Over course of the study period, an ILI symptom was reported 1,085 times via participatory surveillance for an average annual cumulative incidence of 45.7 per 100 people (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 40.7 - 51.4). The cumulative incidence of reports of ILI symptoms was similar among males (46.5, 95% CI: 39.6 - 54.4) and females (45.1, 95% CI: 39.8 - 51.1). There was a slightly higher annual cumulative incidence of ILI among persons living in peri-urban (49.5, 95% CI: 31.7 - 77.3) and urban settings compared to rural areas. The January peak of the participatory surveillance system ILI estimates correlated significantly with the January peak of the COVID-19 case count data (Spearman's correlation coefficient = 0.49; P < 0.001) (Pearson's correlation coefficient = 0.67; P < 0.0001).

Conclusions: The ILI trends captured by the participatory surveillance system in Lesotho mirrored trends of the COVID-19 case count data from Our World in Data. Public health practitioners in geographies that lack the resources to conduct direct surveillance of infectious diseases may be able to use cell phone-based data collection to monitor trends.

Keywords: COVID-19; Influenza-like-Illness; Participatory surveillance.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Correlation of the weekly cumulative incidence of the LeCellPHIA system with OWID case reports in Lesotho, July 22, 2020—July 13–2021
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Weekly incidence rates of ILI symptoms reported to the LeCellPHIA surveillance system (orange) and weekly COVID-19 cases detected by the OWID surveillance system (grey), July 22, 2020—July 13, 2021
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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