Leveraging machine learning approaches for predicting potential Lyme disease cases and incidence rates in the United States using Twitter

Abstract

Background: Lyme disease is one of the most commonly reported infectious diseases in the United States (US), accounting for more than [Formula: see text] of all vector-borne diseases in North America.

Objective: In this paper, self-reported tweets on Twitter were analyzed in order to predict potential Lyme disease cases and accurately assess incidence rates in the US.

Methods: The study was done in three stages: (1) Approximately 1.3 million tweets were collected and pre-processed to extract the most relevant Lyme disease tweets with geolocations. A subset of tweets were semi-automatically labelled as relevant or irrelevant to Lyme disease using a set of precise keywords, and the remaining portion were manually labelled, yielding a curated labelled dataset of 77, 500 tweets. (2) This labelled data set was used to train, validate, and test various combinations of NLP word embedding methods and prominent ML classification models, such as TF-IDF and logistic regression, Word2vec and XGboost, and BERTweet, among others, to identify potential Lyme disease tweets. (3) Lastly, the presence of spatio-temporal patterns in the US over a 10-year period were studied.

Results: Preliminary results showed that BERTweet outperformed all tested NLP classifiers for identifying Lyme disease tweets, achieving the highest classification accuracy and F1-score of [Formula: see text]. There was also a consistent pattern indicating that the West and Northeast regions of the US had a higher tweet rate over time.

Conclusions: We focused on the less-studied problem of using Twitter data as a surveillance tool for Lyme disease in the US. Several crucial findings have emerged from the study. First, there is a fairly strong correlation between classified tweet counts and Lyme disease counts, with both following similar trends. Second, in 2015 and early 2016, the social media network like Twitter was essential in raising popular awareness of Lyme disease. Third, counties with a high incidence rate were not necessarily related with a high tweet rate, and vice versa. Fourth, BERTweet can be used as a reliable NLP classifier for detecting relevant Lyme disease tweets.

Keywords: BERT; Incidence Rate; Lyme disease; Twitter.

Fig. 1

Tweet count and Lyme disease count comparison in the US from 2010 to 2019

Fig. 2

Histogram of confirmed Lyme disease cases in the US between 2010 and 2019

Fig. 3

Histogram of Lyme disease tweet counts by month in the US from 2010 to 2019

Fig. 4

Comparison of selected Geo Maps for Lyme disease tweets and cases in the US (2013, 2016, and 2019). This figure was plotted using Plotly library in Python