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. 2024 Feb;99(2):262.e1-262.e9.
doi: 10.1016/j.gie.2023.10.038. Epub 2023 Oct 17.

Pancreatic cyst features predict future development of pancreatic cancer: results of a nested case-control study

Fady F Youssef  1 , Lin Liu  1 , Wenyi Lin  2 , Ranier Bustamante  3 , Ashley Earles  3 , Thomas Savides  4 , Syed Fehmi  4 , Wilson Kwong  4 , Samir Gupta  1 , Gobind Anand  1
Affiliations

Pancreatic cyst features predict future development of pancreatic cancer: results of a nested case-control study

Fady F Youssef et al. Gastrointest Endosc. 2024 Feb.

Abstract

Background and aims: Risk factors for pancreatic cancer among patients with pancreatic cysts are incompletely characterized. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate risk factors for development of pancreatic cancer among patients with pancreatic cysts.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective case-control study of U.S. veterans with a suspected diagnosis of branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm from 1999 to 2013.

Results: Age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03 per year; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00-1.06), larger cyst size at cyst diagnosis (HR, 1.03 per mm; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04), cyst growth rate (HR, 1.22 per mm/y; 95% CI, 1.14-1.31), and pancreatic duct dilation (5-9.9 mm: HR, 3.78; 95% CI, 1.90-7.51; ≥10 mm: HR, 13.57; 95% CI, 5.49-33.53) were found to be significant predictors for pancreatic cancer on multivariable analysis.

Conclusions: Age, cyst size, cyst growth rate, and high-risk or worrisome features were associated with a higher risk of developing pancreatic cancer. Applying current and developing novel strategies is required to optimize early detection of pancreatic cancer after cyst diagnosis.

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Conflict of interest statement

Disclosure The following authors received research support for this study from the 2017 American College of Gastroenterology Clinical Research Award, the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Health Services Research & Development Service of the Veterans Affairs Office of Research and Development (grant I01 HX001574-05), and the National Cancer Institute (grant R37 CA222866-03): S. Gupta; and the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (grant P30 DK 120515-02): Schnabl. In addition, the following author disclosed financial relationships: S. Fehmi: Consultant for Boston Scientific and Cook Medical. All other authors disclosed no financial relationships.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Forest plots of demographic and radiographic characteristics as predictors of pancreatic cancer among patients with suspected branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm. A, Demographic characteristics. B, Radiographic characteristics. C, Demographic and radiographic characteristics (multivariable analysis). HR, Hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; Ref, reference; PD, pancreatic duct; HRS, high-risk stigmata; WF, worrisome features.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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