Prediction of lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease, by risk factors level: the ATTICA epidemiological cohort study (2002-2022)

Abstract

Purpose: We aimed to predict lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD).

Methods: The sample consisted of 1988 participants with complete CVD data during the 20-year follow-up (50% men, 45 ± 14 years) of the ATTICA study. Lifetime risk for CVD was predicted at specific index ages (40, 50, and 60 years), based on the life-table method, with death free-of-CVD treated as a competing event.

Results: 718 participants experienced a fatal or nonfatal CVD event, corresponding to a crude CVD incidence of 36.1% (men: 40.2%, women: 32.1%, P-value < .001). Overall, women and men had similar lifetime CVD risk (P-value = .245); at index age of 40, the lifetime risk for CVD was 68% for men and 63% for women, with a progressive decline to 56% and 50% at the index age of 50, and to 55% for both men and women, at the index age of 60 years, respectively.

Conclusions: These results on lifetime risk for CVD can guide the allocation of resources to improve public health and preventive services, especially in ages below 50 years, in both men and women.

Keywords: Cardiovascular disease; Epidemiology; Lifetime risk; Prevention.