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. 2023 Oct 28;14(1):6879.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-42615-6.

Impact of COVID-19 on mortality in coastal Kenya: a longitudinal open cohort study

M Otiende  1 , A Nyaguara  2 , C Bottomley  3 , D Walumbe  2 , G Mochamah  2 , D Amadi  2 , C Nyundo  2 , E W Kagucia  2 , A O Etyang  2 , I M O Adetifa  2   3 , S P C Brand  4 , E Maitha  5 , E Chondo  5 , E Nzomo  6 , R Aman  7 , M Mwangangi  7 , P Amoth  7 , K Kasera  7 , W Ng'ang'a  8 , E Barasa  2 , B Tsofa  2 , J Mwangangi  2 , P Bejon  2   9 , A Agweyu  2 , T N Williams  2   10 , J A G Scott  2   3
Affiliations

Impact of COVID-19 on mortality in coastal Kenya: a longitudinal open cohort study

M Otiende et al. Nat Commun. .

Abstract

The mortality impact of COVID-19 in Africa remains controversial because most countries lack vital registration. We analysed excess mortality in Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Kenya, using 9 years of baseline data. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies suggest most adults here were infected before May 2022. During 5 waves of COVID-19 (April 2020-May 2022) an overall excess mortality of 4.8% (95% PI 1.2%, 9.4%) concealed a significant excess (11.6%, 95% PI 5.9%, 18.9%) among older adults ( ≥ 65 years) and a deficit among children aged 1-14 years (-7.7%, 95% PI -20.9%, 6.9%). The excess mortality rate for January 2020-December 2021, age-standardised to the Kenyan population, was 27.4/100,000 person-years (95% CI 23.2-31.6). In Coastal Kenya, excess mortality during the pandemic was substantially lower than in most high-income countries but the significant excess mortality in older adults emphasizes the value of achieving high vaccine coverage in this risk group.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1. Timeline of the first six COVID-19 waves in Kenya, the Kilifi HDSS re-enumeration rounds and excess mortality analysis windows.
The dotted black horizontal line shows the period when HDSS fieldwork was suspended during round 48. The orange data series is the daily number of new cases of test-positive COVID-19 cases reported in Kenya (scale on left-hand y-axis) [Data source: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html]. The predominant variant behind each wave is denoted at the base of each wave. The green line represents the effective reproductive number (scale on the right-hand y-axis) from a secondary source,. The dates of the two anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody serosurveys in Kilifi HDSS are shown as grey bars,. The exact dates of the re-enumeration rounds, defined waves and analysis windows are listed in Table S8.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2. Monthly excess mortality rates from 1st April 2020 to 30th April 2022.
Calculated as (observed deaths—expected deaths)/person-years of observation. The excess mortality rate for all ages above infancy (age ≥1 year) is the weighted average of the age-specific rates. The weights are the proportion of each age group in the Kilifi HDSS population. The grey bands represent the 95% prediction intervals computed as the range from the 5th and 95th percentiles of 100 model simulations.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3. Annual cause-specific mortality fractions by Verbal Autopsy from January 2010 to May 2022.
RTA refers to road traffic accidents.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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