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. 2024 Jan;27(1):104-116.
doi: 10.1016/j.jval.2023.10.008. Epub 2023 Oct 31.

A Scoping Review and Taxonomy of Epidemiological-Macroeconomic Models of COVID-19

Gabrielle Bonnet  1 , Carl A B Pearson  2 , Sergio Torres-Rueda  3 , Francis Ruiz  3 , Jo Lines  4 , Mark Jit  5 , Anna Vassall  3 , Sedona Sweeney  6
Affiliations

A Scoping Review and Taxonomy of Epidemiological-Macroeconomic Models of COVID-19

Gabrielle Bonnet et al. Value Health. 2024 Jan.

Abstract

Objectives: The COVID-19 pandemic placed significant strain on many health systems and economies. Mitigation policies decreased health impacts but had major macroeconomic impact. This article reviews models combining epidemiological and macroeconomic projections to enable policy makers to consider both macroeconomic and health objectives.

Methods: A scoping review of epidemiological-macroeconomic models of COVID-19 was conducted, covering preprints, working articles, and journal publications. We assessed model methodologies, scope, and application to empirical data.

Results: We found 80 articles modeling both the epidemiological and macroeconomic outcomes of COVID-19. Model scope is often limited to the impact of lockdown on health and total gross domestic product or aggregate consumption and to high-income countries. Just 14% of models assess disparities or poverty. Most models fall under 4 categories: compartmental-utility-maximization models, epidemiological models with stylized macroeconomic projections, epidemiological models linked to computable general equilibrium or input-output models, and epidemiological-economic agent-based models. We propose a taxonomy comparing these approaches to guide future model development.

Conclusions: The epidemiological-macroeconomic models of COVID-19 identified have varying complexity and meet different modeling needs. Priorities for future modeling include increasing developing country applications, assessing disparities and poverty, and estimating of long-run impacts. This may require better integration between epidemiologists and economists.

Keywords: COVID-19; epidemiological-macroeconomic models; scoping review.

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Conflict of interest statement

Author Disclosures Dr Bonnet reported receiving grants from Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research, UK Health Security Agency, and the European Union during the conduct of the study. Dr Pearson reported receiving grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and United Kingdom Research and Innovation during the conduct of the study. Dr Ruiz reported receiving grants from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation during the conduct of the study. Dr Lines reported receiving grants from CGIAR during the conduct of the study and grants from the Wellcome Trust and Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office UK Government outside of the submitted work. Dr Jit reported receiving grants from the National Institute for Health Research during the conduct of the study. No other disclosures were reported.

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