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. 2023 Oct 23;5(11):e670-e682.
doi: 10.1016/S2665-9913(23)00232-1. eCollection 2023 Nov.

Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

GBD 2021 Other Musculoskeletal Disorders Collaborators
Collaborators

Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

GBD 2021 Other Musculoskeletal Disorders Collaborators. Lancet Rheumatol. .

Abstract

Background: Musculoskeletal disorders include more than 150 different conditions affecting joints, muscles, bones, ligaments, tendons, and the spine. To capture all health loss from death and disability due to musculoskeletal disorders, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) includes a residual musculoskeletal category for conditions other than osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, gout, low back pain, and neck pain. This category is called other musculoskeletal disorders and includes, for example, systemic lupus erythematosus and spondylopathies. We provide updated estimates of the prevalence, mortality, and disability attributable to other musculoskeletal disorders and forecasted prevalence to 2050.

Methods: Prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using data from 68 sources across 23 countries from which subtraction of cases of rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, low back pain, neck pain, and gout from the total number of cases of musculoskeletal disorders was possible. Data were analysed with Bayesian meta-regression models to estimate prevalence by year, age, sex, and location. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence and disability weights. Mortality attributed to other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated using vital registration data. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 by regressing prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2020 with Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by population forecasts.

Findings: Globally, 494 million (95% uncertainty interval 431-564) people had other musculoskeletal disorders in 2020, an increase of 123·4% (116·9-129·3) in total cases from 221 million (192-253) in 1990. Cases of other musculoskeletal disorders are projected to increase by 115% (107-124) from 2020 to 2050, to an estimated 1060 million (95% UI 964-1170) prevalent cases in 2050; most regions were projected to have at least a 50% increase in cases between 2020 and 2050. The global age-standardised prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was 47·4% (44·9-49·4) higher in females than in males and increased with age to a peak at 65-69 years in male and female sexes. In 2020, other musculoskeletal disorders was the sixth ranked cause of YLDs globally (42·7 million [29·4-60·0]) and was associated with 83 100 deaths (73 600-91 600).

Interpretation: Other musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for a large number of global YLDs in 2020. Until individual conditions and risk factors are more explicitly quantified, policy responses to this burden remain a challenge. Temporal trends and geographical differences in estimates of non-fatal disease burden should not be overinterpreted as they are based on sparse, low-quality data.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Conflict of interest statement

A M Briggs reports grants from the Bone and Joint Decade Foundation, consulting fees from WHO, and support for attending meetings and/or travel from WHO, all outside the submitted work. K Krishan reports non-financial support from the UGC Centre of Advanced Study, CAS II, Department of Anthropology, Panjab University (Chandigarh, India), outside the submitted work. A J Mathew reports research grants from Novartis and payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events from Cipla and Novartis, all outside the submitted work. H Slater reports grants from the Australian government (Department of Health), the Medical Research Future Fund (National Health and Medical Research Council), the Western Australian government (Department of Health), the Bone and Joint Decade Foundation (Lund, Sweden), Curtin University (Perth, WA, Australia), and the Canadian Memorial Chiropractic College (Toronto, ON, Canada); and support for attending meetings and travel from the Australian Pain Society; all outside the submitted work.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Age-standardised prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders for male and female sexes combined, 2020
Figure 2
Figure 2
Global prevalence of and rate of YLDs attributed to other musculoskeletal disorders by age and sex in 2020 Prevalence (A) and rate of YLDs (B) per 100 000 people. The shaded regions denote 95% uncertainty interval. YLDs=years lived with disability.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Decomposition of forecasted change in the number of prevalent cases of other musculoskeletal disorders by region from 2020 to 2050
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

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