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. 2023 Dec:177:107755.
doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2023.107755. Epub 2023 Nov 4.

Percentiles of predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk by sex and age in Brazil and their association with estimated risk of long-term atherosclerotic events

Fernando Yue Cesena  1 , Giuliano Generoso  2 , Itamar de S Santos  2 , Bruce B Duncan  3 , Antonio Luiz P Ribeiro  4 , Luisa Caldeira Brant  5 , Jose Geraldo Mill  6 , Alexandre C Pereira  7 , Marcio Sommer Bittencourt  8 , Raul D Santos  9 , Paulo A Lotufo  2 , Isabela M Benseñor  2
Affiliations

Percentiles of predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk by sex and age in Brazil and their association with estimated risk of long-term atherosclerotic events

Fernando Yue Cesena et al. Prev Med. 2023 Dec.

Abstract

Objective: Expressing the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in relation to peers may complement the estimation of absolute CVD risk. We aimed to determine 10-year CVD risk percentiles by sex and age in the Brazilian population and evaluate their association with estimated long-term atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk.

Methods: A cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from the ELSA-Brasil study was conducted in individuals aged 40-74 years without prior ASCVD. Ten-year CVD risk and long-term ASCVD risk were estimated by the WHO risk score and the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium tool, respectively. Ten-year risk percentiles were determined by ranking the calculated risks within each sex and age group.

Results: Ten-year CVD risk versus percentile plots were constructed for each sex and age group using data from 13,364 participants (55% females; median age, 52 [IQR, 46-59] years). Long-term ASCVD risk was calculated in 12,973 (97.1%) participants. Compared to individuals at the <25th risk percentile, those at the ≥75th percentile had a greater risk of being in the highest quartile of long-term risk (ORs [95% CIs] 6.57 [5.18-8.30] in females and 11.59 [8.42-15.96] in males) in regression models adjusted for age, race, education, and 10-year CVD risk. In both sexes, the association between risk percentile and long-term risk weakened after age 50. A tool for calculating 10-year CVD risk and the corresponding percentile is available at https://bit.ly/3CzPUi6.

Conclusions: We established percentiles of predicted 10-year CVD risk by sex and age in the Brazilian population, which independently reflect the estimated long-term ASCVD risk in younger individuals.

Keywords: ASCVD; Awareness; Cardiovascular diseases; Heart disease risk factors; Risk assessment; World Health Organization.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: RDS received honoraria for consulting, speaker activities, and research from Abbott, Ache, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Biolab, EMS, Hypera, Libbs, Esperion, Kowa, Getz Pharma, Novo Nordisk, Novartis, Merck, PTC Therapeutics, Pfizer, and Sanofi. MSB received honoraria for consulting, speaker activities, and research from EMS, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi, Novartis, GE Healthcare, and Bayer. Other authors have no interests to declare.

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