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. 2023 Nov 7:32:e63.
doi: 10.1017/S2045796023000756.

Changing trends in the global burden of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019 and predicted levels in 25 years

Yang Wu  1 , Lu Wang  2   3   4 , Mengjun Tao  1 , Huiru Cao  5 , Hui Yuan  6 , Mingquan Ye  7 , Xingui Chen  2   3   4 , Kai Wang  5   6   7   8 , Chunyan Zhu  5   6   7   8
Affiliations

Changing trends in the global burden of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019 and predicted levels in 25 years

Yang Wu et al. Epidemiol Psychiatr Sci. .

Abstract

Aims: The burden of mental disorders is increasing worldwide, thus, affecting society and healthcare systems. This study investigated the independent influences of age, period and cohort on the global prevalence of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019; compared them by sex; and predicted the future burden of mental disorders in the next 25 years.

Methods: The age-specific and sex-specific incidence of mental disorders worldwide was analysed according to the general analysis strategy used in the Global Burden of Disease Study in 2019. The incidence and mortality trends of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019 were evaluated through joinpoint regression analysis. The influences of age, period and cohort on the incidence of mental disorders were evaluated with an age-period-cohort model.

Results: From 1990 to 2019, the sex-specific age-standardized incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate decreased slightly. Joinpoint regression analysis from 1990 to 2019 indicated four turning points in the male DALY rate and five turning points in the female DALY rate. In analysis of age effects, the relative risk (RR) of incidence and the DALY rate in mental disorders in men and women generally showed an inverted U-shaped pattern with increasing age. In analysis of period effects, the incidence of mental disorders increased gradually over time, and showed a sub-peak in 2004 (RR, 1.006 for males; 95% CI, 1.000-1.012; 1.002 for women, 0.997-1.008). Analysis of cohort effects showed that the incidence and DALY rate decreased in successive birth cohorts. The incidence of mental disorders is expected to decline slightly over the next 25 years, but the number of cases is expected to increase.

Conclusions: Although the age-standardized burden of mental disorders has declined in the past 30 years, the number of new cases and deaths of mental disorders worldwide has increased, and will continue to increase in the near future. Therefore, relevant policies should be used to promote the prevention and management of known risk factors and strengthen the understanding of risk profiles and incidence modes of mental disorders, to help guide future research on control and prevention strategies.

Keywords: epidemiology; global burden of disease; incidence; mental disorder; prediction.

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Conflict of interest statement

All authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Trends in the sex-specifific age-standardized incidence (a) and DALYs rate (b) rates for mental disorders in globa from 1990 to 2019.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Joinpoint regression analysis of the sex-specifific age-standardized incidence and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) rate for mental disorders in global from 1990 to 2019. (a) Age-standardized incidence rate for males; (b) Age-standardized incidence rate for females; (c) Age-standardized DALYs rate for males; (d) Age-standardized DALYs rate for females and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) rate.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Relative risks of the incidence and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) rate due to mental disorders in global from 1990 to 2019 due to age, period, and cohort effects. (a) Age effects on incidence; (b) Period effects on incidence; (c) Cohort effects on incidence; (d) Age effects on DALYs rate; (e) Period effects on DALYs rate; (f) Cohort effects on DALYs rate.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Trends in mental disorders incidence by sex in global: observed (solid lines) and predicted rates (dashed lines).
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