Ecological diversity profiles of non-vaccine-targeted HPVs after gender-based community vaccination efforts

Abstract

The long-term effect of population-level human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination on the viral ecology of the untargeted HPVs is poorly understood. We performed an 8-year follow-up of 33 communities randomized to gender-neutral HPV16/18 vaccination, girls-only HPV16/18 vaccination, and control communities without HPV vaccination. The 1992/93 and 1994 birth cohorts were invited in school years 2007/8 and 2008/9. Follow-up cervico-vaginal sampling at 18 and 22 years of age, 4 and 8 years post-vaccination, respectively, were attended by 11,396 and 5,602 participants. HPV types 6/11/16/18/31/33/35/39/45/51/52/56/58/59/66/68 were genotyped and used for the community-level ecological diversity estimations. Gender-neutral vaccination communities with a stronger herd immunity than girls-only vaccination communities show a significantly increased HPV α-diversity (p = 1.1 × 10^-8) from 4 to 8 years post-vaccination, despite the clearance of the vaccine-targeted HPVs in these communities. This likely sign of niche occupation by the non-vaccine-targeted HPVs will potentially affect the future cervical cancer screening programs but should not interfere with the WHO mission to eliminate cervical cancer.

Keywords: community randomization; elimination; gender-based vaccination strategy; human papillomavirus; longitudinal follow-up study; niche occupation; type replacement; viral ecology.