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. 2024 Mar-Apr;100(2):196-203.
doi: 10.1016/j.jped.2023.10.004. Epub 2023 Nov 10.

Morbidity trend and space-time clusters of COVID-19 occurrence in children and adolescents

Camila Beatriz Alves da Rocha  1 , Lúbia Maieles Gomes Machado  2 , Pãmela Rodrigues de Souza Silva  3 , Bruna Hinnah Borges Martins de Freitas  4 , Iara Denise Endruweit Battisti  5 , Emerson Soares Dos Santos  6 , Silvana Margarida Benevides Ferreira  3
Affiliations

Morbidity trend and space-time clusters of COVID-19 occurrence in children and adolescents

Camila Beatriz Alves da Rocha et al. J Pediatr (Rio J). 2024 Mar-Apr.

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the morbidity trend and space-time distribution clusters of confirmed COVID-19 cases in children and adolescents.

Method: An ecological study of COVID-19 cases confirmed in the Information System from 2020 to 2022 in the age group from 0 to 19 years old, residents in Mato Grosso municipalities, Brazilian Midwest region. A trend analysis of the monthly morbidity rate of cases/100,000 inhabitants was used, following Prais-Winsten's regression. A space-time distribution of the Bayesian incidence rate per 100,000 inhabitants was performed, in addition to a space-time scan to identify high-risk clusters.

Results: Of all 79,592 COVID-19 cases studied, 51.6% were in females and 44.21% in people aged 15-19 years old. The mean monthly rate was 265.87 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, with a stationary trend in the period analyzed (Monthly Percentage Variation [MPV]) = 12.15; CI95%[MPV]: -0.73;26.70). The morbidity rate due to COVID-19 was higher in the female gender (283.14/100,000 inhabitants) and in the age group from 15 to 19 years old (485.90/100,000 inhabitants). An increasing trend was observed with a greater monthly time variation of 14.42% (CI95%[MPV]: 1.28;29.28)] among those aged from 10 to 14 years old. The primary cluster, which was also the one with the highest Relative Risk (RR = 5,16, p-value = 0.001), included 19 municipalities located in the North health macro-region.

Conclusion: The findings indicated a monthly stationary trend in the study population, an increase in the age group from 10 to 14 years old, and areas at a higher risk for the disease in the North health macro-region of the state.

Keywords: Adolescent; COVID-19; Child; Clusters; Space-time.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflicts of interest The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Fig 1
Figure 1
Space-time distribution of the COVID-19/100,000 inhabitants Bayesian incidence rates among children and adolescents aged from 0 to 19 years old, Mato Grosso, Brazil (2020–2022). Source: Data from the INDICASUS Information System; Mato Grosso (SES/MT).
Fig 2
Figure 2
Space-time clusters at high risk for COVID-19 among children and adolescents aged from 0 to 19 years old, Mato Grosso, Brazil (2020–2022). Source: Data from the INDICASUS Information System; Mato Grosso (SES/MT).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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