Anticipatory decision-making for cholera in Malawi

Abstract

Climate change raises an old disease to a new level of public health threat. The causative agent, Vibrio cholerae, native to aquatic ecosystems, is influenced by climate and weather processes. The risk of cholera is elevated in vulnerable populations lacking access to safe water and sanitation infrastructure. Predictive intelligence, employing mathematical algorithms that integrate earth observations and heuristics derived from microbiological, sociological, and weather data, can provide anticipatory decision-making capabilities to reduce the burden of cholera and save human lives. An example offered here is the recent outbreak of cholera in Malawi, predicted in advance by such algorithms.

Keywords: Malawi; cholera; remote sensing.

Fig 1

Cholera outbreaks reported in Africa from 2017 to 2022.

Fig 2

Cholera risk for Malawi 14 February 2022, valid for the following 4 weeks.

Fig 3

Boxplot for an entire Malawi cholera risk time series (values greater than 0.34 represent medium risk, in yellow color; values greater than 0.50 represent a high risk, in red color, of cholera). Line shows probable time when cholera was acknowledged by the health agencies.