ASSESS-IE: a Novel Risk Score for Patients with Infective Endocarditis

Abstract

Mortality in patients with infective endocarditis (IE) remains high. The existing risk scores are relatively complex with limited clinical application. This study was conducted to establish a new risk model to predict in-hospital and 6-month mortality in IE patients. A total of 1549 adult patients with definite IE admitted to Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital (n=1354) or Xiamen Cardiovascular Hospital (n=195) were included. The derivation cohort consisted of 1141 patients. The score was developed using the multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis for in-hospital death. Bootstrap analysis was used for validation. Discrimination and calibration were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Six risk factors were used as score parameters (1 point for each): aortic valve affected, previous valve replacement surgery, severe heart failure, elevated serum direct bilirubin, moderate-severe anemia and acute stage. The predictive value and calibration of the ASSESS-IE score for in-hospital death were excellent in the derivation (area under the curve [AUC]=0.781, p<0.001; Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.948) and validation (AUC=0.779, p<0.001; Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.520) cohorts. The score remained excellent in bootstrap validation (AUC=0.783). The discriminatory ability of the ASSESS-IE score for in-hospital (AUC: 0.781 vs. 0.799, p=0.398) and 6-month mortality (AUC: 0.778 vs. 0.814, p=0.040) were similar with that of Park's score which comprised 14 variables. The ASSESS-IE risk score is a new and robust risk-stratified tool for patients with IE, which might further facilitate clinical decision-making.

Keywords: ASSESS; Infective endocarditis; Mortality; Prognosis; Risk score.