Changes in cancer incidence rates by stage during the COVID-19 pandemic in the US

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to health care disruptions and declines in cancer diagnoses in the United States. However, the impact of the pandemic on cancer incidence rates by stage at diagnosis and race and ethnicity is unknown. This cross-sectional study calculated delay- and age-adjusted incidence rates, stratified by stage at diagnosis and race and ethnicity, and rate ratios (RRs) comparing changes in year-over-year incidence rates (eg, 2020 vs 2019) from 2016 to 2020 for 22 cancer types based on data obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 22-registry database. From 2019 to 2020, the incidence of local-stage disease statistically significantly declined for 19 of the 22 cancer types, ranging from 4% (RR = 0.96; 95%CI, 0.93-0.98) for urinary bladder cancer to 18% for colorectal (RR = 0.82; 95%CI, 0.81-0.84) and laryngeal (RR = 0.82; 95%CI, 0.78-0.88) cancers, deviating from pre-COVID stable year-over-year changes. Incidence during the corresponding period also declined for 16 cancer types for regional-stage and six cancer types for distant-stage disease. By race and ethnicity, the decline in local-stage incidence for screening-detectable cancers was generally greater in historically marginalized populations. The decline in cancer incidence rates during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic occurred mainly for local- and regional-stage diseases across racial and ethnic groups. Whether these declines will lead to increases in advanced-stage disease and mortality rates remain to be investigated with additional data years. Nevertheless, the findings reinforce the importance of strengthening the return to preventive care campaigns and outreach for detecting cancers at early and more treatable stages.

Keywords: cancer; coronavirus pandemic; incidence; rate ratio; stage at diagnosis.