Outlook of pandemic preparedness in a post-COVID-19 world

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic was met with rapid, unprecedented global collaboration and action. Even still, the public health, societal, and economic impact may be felt for years to come. The risk of another pandemic occurring in the next few decades is ever-present and potentially increasing due to trends such as urbanization and climate change. While it is difficult to predict the next pandemic pathogen threat, making reasonable assumptions today and evaluating prior efforts to plan for and respond to disease outbreaks and pandemics may enable a more proactive, effective response in the future. Lessons from the COVID-19 response and pandemic influenza preparedness underscore the importance of strengthening surveillance systems, investing in early-stage research on pandemic pathogens and development of platform technologies, and diversifying response plans across a range of tactics to enable earlier access to safe and effective interventions in the next pandemic. Further, sustaining the robust vaccine manufacturing capacity built because of COVID-19 will keep it ready for rapid response in the future. These actions will not be successful without improved global coordination and collaboration. Everyone, including the biopharmaceutical industry, has a role to play in pandemic preparedness, and working together will ensure that the most lives are saved in the next pandemic.

Fig. 1. Examples of death tolls from historic epidemics or pandemics.

Death tolls of major epidemics or pandemics in the last millennia are signified by circle size. Different interventions (triangles) were used during each pandemic, and advancements in intervention strategies likely reduced death tolls significantly, especially during COVID-19.

Fig. 2. Applying lessons from COVID-19 to reimagine the future.

The number of cases (pink line), number of deaths (teal line), and number of vaccine doses administered (purple line) are all influenced by pandemic preparedness and response tactics. Decreasing the delay between responses and the point of pandemic declaration would lower the number of cases and deaths earlier in a pandemic. Vaccination is a key intervention for this result.