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. 2023 Nov 17;49(5):e20220442.
doi: 10.36416/1806-3756/e20220442. eCollection 2023.

Effects of air temperature on the risk of death from COPD in major microregions in Brazil: a time series study

[Article in English, Portuguese]
Igor Magaton Ribas  1 , João Pedro Medeiros Gomes  1 , Pedro Augusto Rosa Valadares  1 , Lucas Santos Jardim  1 , Mário Círio Nogueira  1 , Cássia de Castro Martins Ferreira  2 , William Cossich Marcial de Farias  3 , Letícia de Castro Martins Ferreira  1
Affiliations

Effects of air temperature on the risk of death from COPD in major microregions in Brazil: a time series study

[Article in English, Portuguese]
Igor Magaton Ribas et al. J Bras Pneumol. .

Abstract
in English, Portuguese

Objective: To evaluate the association between the risk of death from COPD and air temperature events in ten major Brazilian microregions.

Methods: This was a time series analysis of daily COPD deaths and daily mean air temperatures between 1996 and 2017. Using distributed nonlinear lag models, we estimated the cumulative relative risks of COPD mortality for four temperature percentiles (representing moderate and extreme cold and heat events) in relation to a minimum mortality temperature, with a lag of 21 days, in each microregion.

Results: Significant associations were found between extreme air temperature events and the risk of death from COPD in the southern and southeastern microregions in Brazil. There was an association of extreme cold and an increased mortality risk in the following microregions: 36% (95% CI, 1.12-1.65), in Porto Alegre; 27% (95% CI, 1.03-1.58), in Curitiba; and 34% (95% CI, 1.19-1.52), in São Paulo; whereas moderate cold was associated with an increased risk of 20% (95% CI, 1.01-1.41), 33% (95% CI, 1.09-1.62), and 24% (95% CI, 1.12-1.38) in the same microregions, respectively. There was an increased COPD mortality risk in the São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro microregions: 17% (95% CI, 1.05-1.31) and 12% (95% CI, 1,02-1,23), respectively, due to moderate heat, and 23% (95% CI, 1,09-1,38) and 32% (95% CI, 1,15-1,50) due to extreme heat.

Conclusions: Non-optimal air temperature events were associated with an increased risk of death from COPD in tropical and subtropical areas of Brazil.

Objetivo:: Avaliar a associação entre o risco de morte por DPOC e eventos de temperatura do ar em dez grandes microrregiões brasileiras.

Métodos:: Esta foi uma análise de série temporal de mortes diárias por DPOC e temperaturas médias diárias do ar entre 1996 e 2017. Utilizando modelos de defasagem não linear distribuídos, estimamos os riscos relativos cumulativos de mortalidade por DPOC para quatro percentis de temperatura (representando eventos moderados e extremos de frio e calor) em relação a uma temperatura mínima de mortalidade, com defasagem de 21 dias, em cada microrregião.

Resultados:: Foram encontradas associações significativas entre eventos extremos de temperatura do ar e o risco de morte por DPOC nas microrregiões Sul e Sudeste do Brasil. Houve associação de frio extremo e aumento do risco de mortalidade nas seguintes microrregiões: 36% (IC 95%, 1,12-1,65), em Porto Alegre; 27% (IC 95%, 1,03-1,58), em Curitiba; e 34% (IC 95%, 1,19-1,52), em São Paulo; enquanto o frio moderado foi associado a um risco aumentado de 20% (IC 95%, 1,01-1,41), 33% (IC 95%, 1,09-1,62) e 24% (IC 95%, 1,12-1,38) nas mesmas microrregiões, respectivamente. Houve aumento do risco de mortalidade por DPOC nas microrregiões de São Paulo e Rio de Janeiro: 17% (IC 95%, 1,05-1,31) e 12% (IC 95%, 1,02-1,23), respectivamente, devido ao calor moderado e 23% (IC 95%, 1,09-1,38) e 32% (IC 95%, 1,15-1,50) devido ao calor extremo.

Conclusões:: Eventos de temperatura do ar não ideal foram associados a um risco aumentado de morte por DPOC em áreas tropicais e subtropicais do Brasil.

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Conflict of interest statement

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Daily distribution of deaths from COPD (J41-44) and mean temperatures (°C) between 1996 and 2017 in the microregions studied. Each day is represented as a gray dot, and the line on each graph represents the time trend.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Accumulated relative risk (RR) curves by temperature. The gray margins indicate the confidence interval of the measurement, the vertical line indicates the minimum mortality temperature, and the lines below the x-axis indicate single measurements of temperature.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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