Epidemiological Analysis of Global and Regional Lung Cancer Mortality: Based on 30-Year Data Analysis of Global Burden Disease Database

Abstract

The objective of this study was to understand dynamic global and regional lung cancer fatality trends and provide a foundation for effective global lung cancer prevention and treatment strategies. Data from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden Disease (GBD) database and statistical analysis was conducted using Excel 2010. Standardization was based on the GBD's world population structure, and the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) was calculated using Joinpoint 4.8.0.1 software. Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis (BAPC) predicted global lung cancer mortality from 2020 to 2030. In 2019, worldwide lung cancer deaths reached 2,042,600, a 91.75% increase from 1990 (1,065,100). The standardized age-specific death rate in 2019 was 25.18 per 100,000. Males had a rate of 37.38 while females had 14.99. Men saw a decreasing trend while women experienced an increase. High- and medium-high-SDI regions had declining rates (-0.3 and -0.8 AAPCs) whereas middle-, low-, and low-middle-SDI regions had increased mortality rates (AAPC = 0.1, AAPC = 0.37, AAPC = 0.13). Several regions, including Oceania, South Asia, East Asia, Western Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, witnessed rising global lung cancer mortality rates (p < 0.01). The global standardized mortality rate for lung cancer is expected to decrease from 2020 to 2030, but predictions indicate increasing female mortality and decreasing male mortality. Despite overall declines, rising female mortality remains a concern. Effective measures are essential to reduce mortality rates and improve patients' quality of life in the global fight against lung cancer.

Keywords: epidemiology; global and regional; lung cancer; mortality; trends.

Figure 1

Lung cancer mortality cases by age group from 1990 to 2019.

Figure 2

Map of ASMRs of lung cancer per 100,000 individuals by country: (A) 1990, (B) 2019. (NA refers to Not Available).

Figure 3

Results of Joinpoint regression analysis of trends in global lung cancer mortality data, 1990−2019. (* Indicates that the Annual Percent Change (APC) is significantly different from zero at the alpha = 0.05 level).

Figure 4

Map of the global and region AAPCs of lung cancer ASMRs from 1990 to 2019 in males and females.

Figure 5

Results of Joinpoint regression analysis of trends in different SDI regions’ lung cancer mortality data, 1990−2019: (A): high SDI; (B): high–middle SDI; (C): middle SDI; (D): low–middle SDI; (E): low SDI. (* Indicates that the Annual Percent Change (APC) is significantly different from zero at the alpha = 0.05 level).

Figure 6

Trends in lung cancer mortality rate by sex: (A) male, (B) female; (C) trends of global lung cancer mortality numbers and age-standardized mortality rates. (The meaning of the different gradient colors in (A,B): The outermost ring represents the 95% confidence interval, and then each color gradient gradients inward at a rate of 0.05%).