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. 2023 Nov 11;13(22):3482.
doi: 10.3390/ani13223482.

Predicting Disparity between ASF-Managed Areas and Wild Boar Habitats: A Case of South Korea

Chanwoo Ko  1 , Dongwook W Ko  2 , Wonhee Cho  3
Affiliations

Predicting Disparity between ASF-Managed Areas and Wild Boar Habitats: A Case of South Korea

Chanwoo Ko et al. Animals (Basel). .

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting both domestic and wild boars. Since its first outbreak in South Korea in 2019, substantial efforts have been made to prevent ASF transmission by reducing the wild boar population and eliminating infected carcasses; however, the persistence of ASF transmission has posed challenges to these efforts. To improve ASF management strategies, the limitations of current management strategies must be identified by considering disparities between wild boar habitats and ASF-managed areas with environmental and anthropogenic characteristics of wild boars and their management strategies. Here, ensemble species distribution models were used to estimate wild boar habitats and potential ASF-managed areas, with elevation, distance to urban areas, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as important variables. Binary maps of wild boar habitats and potential ASF-managed areas were generated using the maxSSS as the threshold criterion. Disparity areas of ASF management were identified by overlying regions evaluated as wild boar habitats with those not classified as ASF-managed areas. Dense forests near urban regions like Chungcheongbuk-do, Gyeongsangbuk-do, and Gyeongsangnam-do were evaluated as disparity areas having high risk of ASF transmission. These findings hold significant potential for refining ASF management strategies and establishing proactive control measures.

Keywords: ASF; SDM; disease management strategies; potential risk areas; transmission pathways.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
(A) Location of main rivers and cities in South Korea; (B) Land cover of South Korea.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Conceptual images for identifying disparity areas comparing estimation results by wild boar habitats and ASF-managed areas.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The datasets applied in the study. (A) The 360 locations where the ASF-infected individuals were confirmed, consisting of 360 points. (B) The 360 locations where wild boar traces were detected, generated from the 4th NNES points.
Figure 4
Figure 4
The environmental-anthropogenic variables used to estimate the wild boar habitats and ASF-managed areas.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Mean relative variable importance (A) and response curves (B) of the environmental variables for SDMs.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Binary map and validation points of ASF management model (A) and wild boar habitat model (B).
Figure 7
Figure 7
Density of ASF-management disparity areas. Eumseong-gun in Chungcheongbuk-do Province (A), Yeongju-si in Gyeongsangbuk-do Province (B), and mountainous expanse extending from Yeongcheon-si in Gyeongsangbuk-do Province to Gyeongju-si in Gyeongsangnam-do Province (C) were evaluated as having high disparities.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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