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. 2023 Oct 31;15(11):2196.
doi: 10.3390/v15112196.

Estimating the Transmission Kernel for Lumpy Skin Disease Virus from Data on Outbreaks in Thailand in 2021

Veerasak Punyapornwithaya  1   2 , Roderick Salvador  3 , Wittawat Modethed  2 , Orapun Arjkumpa  4 , Chaiwat Jarassaeng  5 , Georgina Limon  6 , Simon Gubbins  6
Affiliations

Estimating the Transmission Kernel for Lumpy Skin Disease Virus from Data on Outbreaks in Thailand in 2021

Veerasak Punyapornwithaya et al. Viruses. .

Abstract

Nationwide outbreaks of lumpy skin disease (LSD) were observed in Thailand in 2021. A better understanding of its disease transmission is crucial. This study utilized a kernel-based approach to characterize the transmission of LSD between cattle herds. Outbreak data from the Khon Kaen and Lamphun provinces in Thailand were used to estimate transmission kernels for each province. The results showed that the majority of herd-to-herd transmission occurs over short distances. For Khon Kaen, the median transmission distance from the donor herd was estimated to be between 0.3 and 0.8 km, while for Lamphun, it ranged from 0.2 to 0.6 km. The results imply the critical role that insects may play as vectors in the transmission of LSD within the two study areas. This is the first study to estimate transmission kernels from data on LSD outbreaks in Thailand. The findings from this study offer valuable insights into the spatial transmission of this disease, which will be useful in developing prevention and control strategies.

Keywords: Thailand; cattle; epidemiology; kernel transmission; lumpy skin disease.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest. Furthermore, in terms of financial support, the authors declare that the funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript; or in the decision to publish the results.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Maps depicting the locations of lumpy skin disease outbreaks in the Khon Kaen (upper panels) and Lamphun (lower panels) provinces, Thailand. Each dot represents the location of a herd.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The geographical location of lumpy skin disease outbreaks in the Khon Kaen (upper panel) and Lamphun (lower panel) provinces, Thailand. Each dot represents a cattle herd, and the color of the dot indicates the onset date of the outbreak (indicated to the right of each panel).2.2. Modeling Approach.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Transmission kernels estimated from data on outbreaks of lumpy skin disease virus in the Khon Kaen and Lamphun provinces, Thailand. The plots show the sensitivity of the estimated kernels to the assumption that each herd acquired LSDV from the nearest infected herd. This was assessed by reassigning the donor for a proportion of recipient herds to any infected herd. Results are shown for 1000 reassignments of donor–recipient pairs, with circles and error bars showing the median and 95% range for the estimates. The colors of the lines and symbols indicate the proportion of donors which were reassigned.
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