Early detection of deterioration in COVID-19 patients by continuous ward respiratory rate monitoring: a pilot prospective cohort study

Abstract

Background: Tachypnea is among the earliest signs of pulmonary decompensation. Contactless continuous respiratory rate monitoring might be useful in isolated COVID-19 patients admitted in wards. We therefore aimed to determine whether continuous monitoring of respiratory patterns in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 predicts subsequent need for increased respiratory support.

Methods: Single-center pilot prospective cohort study in COVID-19 patients who were cared for in routine wards. COVID-19 patients who had at least one escalation of pulmonary management were matched to three non-escalated patients. Contactless respiratory monitoring was instituted after patients enrolled, and continued for 15 days unless hospital discharge, initiation of invasive mechanical ventilation, or death occurred. Clinicians were blinded to respiratory rate data from the continuous monitor. The exposures were respiratory features over rolling periods of 30 min, 24 h, and 72 h before respiratory care escalation. The primary outcome was a subsequent escalation in ventilatory support beyond a Venturi mask.

Results: Among 125 included patients, 13 exhibited at least one escalation and were each matched to three non-escalated patients. A total of 28 escalation events were matched to 84 non-escalation episodes. The 30-min mean respiratory rate in escalated patients was 23 breaths per minute (bpm) ranging from 13 to 40 bpm, similar to the 22 bpm in non-escalated patients, although with less variability (range 14 to 31 bpm). However, higher respiratory rate variability, especially skewness over 1 day, was associated with higher incidence of escalation events. Our overall model, based on continuous data, had a moderate accuracy with an AUC 0.81 (95%CI: 0.73, 0.88) and a good specificity 0.93 (95%CI: 0.87, 0.99).

Conclusion: Our pilot observational study suggests that respiratory rate variability as detected with continuous monitoring is associated with subsequent care escalation during the following 24 h. Continuous respiratory monitoring thus appears to be a valuable increment over intermittent monitoring.

Strengths and limitations: Our study was the initial evaluation of Circadia contactless respiratory monitoring in COVID-19 patients who are at special risk of pulmonary deterioration. The major limitation is that the analysis was largely post hoc and thus needs to be confirmed in an out-of-sample population.

Keywords: COVID-19; continuous monitoring; hospitalization ward; respiratory failure; respiratory rate.

Figure 1

Subject selection flow chart.

Figure 2

Forest plot of respiratory rate features odds ratio (95% confidence intervals) of being associated with an escalation event within 24 h thereafter. Higher values indicate higher odds of escalation. All units are in breaths per minute, except respiratory trend (breaths per minute per day).

Figure 3

Receiver operating characteristics curve for full model.