Global, regional, and national burden of inflammatory bowel disease and its associated anemia, 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2050: An analysis of the global burden of disease study 2019

Abstract

Aim: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) exhibited a global increase in incidence over the past decade. Understanding global burden of IBD can offer valuable insights for shaping future management strategies. We aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of global burden of IBD from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2050.

Methods: Data on prevalence, incidence, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) and IBD-attributable impairment factor (anemia) were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019. Subgroup analyses were performed based on gender, geographical regions, and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Joinpoint model, Bayesian age-period-cohort model and decomposition methodology were utilized to evaluate the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019, forecast the disease burden up to 2050 and decompose incidence, prevalence, YLDs and DALYs of IBD by population age structure, population growth and epidemiologic changes.

Results: From 1990 to 2019, number of prevalence, DALYs, YLDs for IBD and number of prevalence for IBD-related-anemia increased significantly. Age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, DALYs, and YLDs showed declining trends, with this decline anticipated to continue until 2050 for both genders. The IBD burden remained high in countries with high and high-middle SDI. Besides, countries with low, low-middle, and middle SDI were experiencing an increasing burden. Number and ASR of prevalence and YLDs of IBD related anemia increased with SDI Decomposition analysis indicated that population growth was the primary contributing factor, followed by population aging.

Conclusion: Due to population growth and aging, the burden of IBD is projected to continue rising until 2050, which emphasizes the urgency of addressing the evolving public health challenge posed by IBD.

Keywords: Anemia; Epidemiology; Global burden of disease; Inflammatory bowel disease; Prediction.