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. 2023 Dec 1;6(12):e2346598.
doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.46598.

Global Burden of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Through 2050

Elroy Boers  1 , Meredith Barrett  2 , Jason G Su  3 , Adam V Benjafield  4 , Sanjeev Sinha  5 , Leanne Kaye  2 , Heather J Zar  6 , Vy Vuong  2 , Daniela Tellez  2 , Rahul Gondalia  2 , Mary B Rice  7 , Carlos M Nunez  2 , Jadwiga A Wedzicha  8 , Atul Malhotra  9
Affiliations

Global Burden of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Through 2050

Elroy Boers et al. JAMA Netw Open. .

Abstract

Importance: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a respiratory condition that is associated with significant health and economic burden worldwide. Previous studies assessed the global current-day prevalence of COPD, but to better facilitate resource planning and intervention development, long-term projections are needed.

Objective: To assess the global burden of COPD through 2050, considering COPD risk factors.

Design, setting, and participants: In this modeling study, historical data on COPD prevalence was extracted from a recent meta-analysis on 2019 global COPD prevalence, and 2010 to 2018 historical prevalence was estimated using random-effects meta-analytical models. COPD risk factor data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease database.

Main outcomes and measures: To project global COPD prevalence to 2050, generalized additive models were developed, including smoking prevalence, indoor and outdoor air pollution, and development indices as predictors, and stratified by age, sex, and World Bank region.

Results: The models estimated that the number of COPD cases globally among those aged 25 years and older will increase by 23% from 2020 to 2050, approaching 600 million patients with COPD globally by 2050. Growth in the burden of COPD was projected to be the largest among women and in low- and middle-income regions. The number of female cases was projected to increase by 47.1% (vs a 9.4% increase for males), and the number of cases in low- and middle-income regions was expected to be more than double that of high-income regions by 2050.

Conclusions and relevance: In this modeling study of future COPD burden, projections indicated that COPD would continue to affect hundreds of millions of people globally, with disproportionate growth among females and in low-middle income regions through 2050. Further research, prevention, and advocacy are needed to address these issues so that adequate preparation and resource allocation can take place.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of Interest Disclosures: Dr Boers, Dr Barrett, Dr Benjafield, Dr Kaye, Ms Vuong, Ms Tellez, Dr Gonalia, and Dr Nunez reported being employees of ResMed during the conduct and outside the submitted work. Dr Barrett reported receiving personal fees from ResMed during the conduct of the study and outside the submitted work; in addition, Dr Barrett reporting having multiple patents pending, not directly related but focused on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Dr Gondalia reported receiving personal fees from ResMed, which include salary and stock options, during the conduct of the study. Dr Rice reported receiving grants from the National Institutes of Health outside the submitted work. Dr Wedzicha reported receiving grants from GSK, AstraZeneca, Boehringer, Novartis, Chiesi, Genentech, and 37 Clinical and receiving personal fees from Roche, GSK, AstraZeneca, Gilead, Chiesi, Empirico, Epiendo, Pieris, and Pulmatrix outside the submitted work. Dr Malhotra reported receiving grants from the National Institutes of Health; receiving a philanthropic donation from ResMed to the University of California San Diego; and receiving personal fees from Zoll, Jazz, Eli Lilly and Co, and Livanova outside the submitted work. No other disclosures were reported.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.. Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Prevalence and Cases Across World Regions From 2020 to 2050
Figure 2.
Figure 2.. Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Prevalence and Cases Among Males From 2020 to 2050
Figure 3.
Figure 3.. Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Prevalence and Cases Among Females From 2020 to 2050
Figure 4.
Figure 4.. Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Cases Calculated Based on Generalized Additive Models Prevalence Estimates Across Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) and High-Income Countries (HICs)
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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