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. 2023 Oct 19;31(4):479-488.
doi: 10.5606/tgkdc.dergisi.2023.24964.. eCollection 2023 Oct.

Prognostic value of CHA2DS2-VASc score for the long-term cardiovascular events after coronary artery bypass grafting

Abdulkadir Ercan  1 , Orcun Gurbuz  1 , Zekeriya Afsin Culhaoglu  2 , Gencehan Kumtepe  3 , Hakan Ozkan  4 , Ahmet Yuksel  5 , Serdar Ener  6
Affiliations

Prognostic value of CHA2DS2-VASc score for the long-term cardiovascular events after coronary artery bypass grafting

Abdulkadir Ercan et al. Turk Gogus Kalp Damar Cerrahisi Derg. .

Abstract

Background: This study aims to investigate the value of the CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting long-term major cardiovascular events following coronary artery bypass grafting.

Methods: Between January 2008 and January 2010, a total of 559 patients (445 males, 114 females; mean age: 62.7±9.1 years; range, 35 to 84 years) who underwent elective coronary artery bypass grafting were retrospectively analyzed. At a mean of 10.7±3.1-year follow-up, major cardiovascular events were considered as the primary endpoint.

Results: The multivariate Cox hazard analysis identified the CHA2DS2-VASc score as an independent predictor of major cardiovascular events (hazard ratio: 1.615; 95% confidence interval: 1.038-2.511; p=0.034). The receiver operating characteristic curve analyses revealed that 3.5 was the most optimal cut-off value of the score predicting major cardiovascular events and the patients were divided into two groups accordingly. The Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated a significantly higher incidence of major cardiovascular events in proportion to a higher CHA2DS2-VASc score (p<0.001).

Conclusion: CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥4, which includes many risk factors for cardiovascular events, can be used as an independent predictor of long-term major cardiovascular events after coronary artery bypass grafting.

Keywords: CHA2DS2-VASc score; coronary artery bypass grafting; coronary artery disease; major cardiovascular event..

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of Interest: The authors declared no conflicts of interest with respect to the authorship and/or publication of this article.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. ROC curve analysis. The diagonal represents the no-effect line (AUC=0.50), with curves above this line representing increasing diagnostic accuracy. CHA2DS2-VASc score accurately predicted MACE (AUC, 0.63; 95% CI: 0.583-0.675; p<0.001). The optimal cut-off to predict MACE is 3.5 with a sensitivity of 44.6% and specificity of 75.3%. AUC: Area under the curve.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Kaplan-Meier estimates of MACE-free survival (p<0.001 by the log-rank test). MACE: Major cardiovascular event.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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