Temperature-related death burden of various neurodegenerative diseases under climate warming: a nationwide modelling study

Abstract

Limited knowledge exists regarding the ramifications of climate warming on death burden from neurodegenerative diseases. Here, we conducted a nationwide, individual-level, case-crossover study between 2013 and 2019 to investigate the effects of non-optimal temperatures on various neurodegenerative diseases and to predict the potential death burden under different climate change scenarios. Our findings reveal that both low and high temperatures are linked to increased risks of neurodegenerative diseases death. We project that heat-related neurodegenerative disease deaths would increase, while cold-related deaths would decrease. This is characterized by a steeper slope in the high-emission scenario, but a less pronounced trend in the scenarios involving mitigation strategies. Furthermore, we predict that the net changes in attributable death would increase after the mid-21st century, especially under the unrestricted-emission scenario. These results highlight the urgent need for effective climate and public health policies to address the growing challenges of neurodegenerative diseases associated with global warming.

Fig. 1. Exposure-response curves for the associations between daily mean temperature and death of overall and specific neurodegenerative diseases, at the national and regional levels.

The associations were presented as the cumulative relative risks comparing a given temperature to the minimum-death temperatures over lag 0–14 day. The lines represent the point estimates, and the shadings indicate corresponding 95% confidence intervals. The results for other climatic zones were not presented due to the null associations. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.

Fig. 2. Lag-response curves for the relative risks of neurodegenerative disease death comparing extreme high temperatures (the 97.5^th percentile, A) and extreme low temperatures (the 2.5^th percentile, B) to the minimum-death temperatures, at the national and regional levels.

The lines represent the point estimates, and the shadings indicate corresponding 95% confidence intervals. The results for other climatic zones were not presented due to the null associations. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.

Fig. 3. The projected national fractions of neurodegenerative disease death associated with non-optimum temperatures under three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585) for every decade from the 2010s to 2090s.

Estimates are reported as GCM-ensemble averages. The points denote the mean estimates and the shaded areas represent their empirical 95% confidence intervals computed from Monte Carlo simulations (1000 samples). SSP shared socioeconomic pathway, GCM general climate models. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.

Fig. 4. Differences in the projected national fractions of neurodegenerative disease death associated with non-optimum temperatures in 2010–2090 compared with 1980–2009 under three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585).

Estimates are reported as GCM-ensemble averages. The red bars represent the estimates of the heat-attributable fraction and the blue bars represent the estimates of the cold-attributable fraction. The black dots and vertical segments represent estimates of net differences and their 95% empirical CIs, respectively. SSP shared socioeconomic pathway, GCM general climate models. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.