Epidemiological survival pattern, risk factors, and estimated time to develop tuberculosis after test and treat strategies declared for children living with human immune deficiency virus

Abstract

Background: Due to their age category and the immune-suppressing effects of HIV, children were more vulnerable to experience endogenous reactivation of latent bacilli in the lung and increased risk of active tuberculosis incidence. The aim of this study is to assess the survival pattern, risk factors, and estimated time to develop TB after children started ART at selected health facilities of North Wollo, Ethiopia, from November 1, to September 30, 2021.

Methods: Facility-based retrospective cohort study was employed from November 1 to September 30, 2021. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to assess factors associated with incidence of tuberculosis. AHR with 95% CI was used to declare statistical significance for tuberculosis incidence.

Results: During follow-up, 54 (10.9%) new cases of tuberculosis was reported. At the end of follow-up period, overall cumulative survival probability was determined as 43.8% (95%CI: 28.2-54.3). WHO clinical stage III&IV (AHR: 2.4 (95% CI: 1.4, 4.7), Hgb≤10 gm/dl (AHR = 2.2: (95%CI: 1.12-5.8), missed isoniazid preventive therapy (AHR = 2.5 (95%CI: 1.56-10.3) and Viral Load (≥400 cell/ml) (AHR = 2.02 (95%CI: 2.03-6.8) were significant risk factors for tuberculosis incidence.

Conclusion: Nearly ten % of HIV-positive children experienced new cases of tuberculosis with median time of 25(IQR = ±12) months. It would be better to give special attention to children who missed isoniazid preventive therapy with WHO stages III&IV Viral load (≥400 cells/ml), and Hgb≤10 gm/dl to prevent tuberculosis incidence and prolonged quality of life.

Keywords: Children; HIV; Survival pattern; Tuberculosis.