Ebola incidence and mortality before and during a lockdown: The 2022 epidemic in Uganda

Abstract

On September 20, 2022, an Ebola Disease (EBOD) outbreak was declared in Mubende district, Central Uganda. Following a rapid surge in the number of cases and mortality, the Government of Uganda imposed a lockdown in the two most affected districts, Mubende and Kassanda. We describe the trends in EBOD incidence and mortality nationally and in the two districts before and during the lockdown and the lessons learned during the epidemic response. We retrieved data from the Ministry of Health situation reports from September 20, 2022, when the EBOD outbreak was declared until November 26, 2022, when the lockdown ended. We graphed trends in EBOD morbidity and mortality during a 3-week and 6-week lockdown, computed the EBOD case fatality rate, and summarized the major lessons learned during the epidemic response. We found case fatality rate during the pre-lockdown, 3-week lockdown, and 6-week lockdown period was 37.9% (22/58), 39.3% (53/135), and 38.7% (55/142), respectively. In the early weeks of the lockdown, EBOD incidence and mortality increased nationally and in Kassanda district while Mubende district registered a decline in incidence and stagnation in mortality. With the extension of the lockdown to six weeks, the EBOD incidence and mortality during the 4-6-week lockdown declined compared to the pre-lockdown period. In conclusion, the EBOD incidence and mortality remained higher in the early weeks of the lockdown than during the pre-lockdown period nationally and in one of the two districts. With extended lockdown, incidence and mortality dropped in the 4-6-week period than the pre-lockdown period. Therefore, reliance on known public health measures to control an EBOD outbreak is important.

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