Changing impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy 2019-2023 and its decomposition: Findings from 27 countries

Abstract

Background: The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 no longer a global health emergency on 5^th May 2023; however, the impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy throughout the pandemic period is not clear. This study aimed to quantify and decompose the changes in life expectancy during 2019-2023 and corresponding age and gender disparities in 27 countries.

Methods: Data were sourced from the Human Mortality Database, the World Population Prospects 2022 and the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics. Life expectancy was estimated using the abridged life table method, while differentials of life expectancies were decomposed using the age-decomposition algorithm.

Results: There was an overall reduction in life expectancy at age 5 among the 27 countries in 2020. Life expectancy rebounded in Western, Northern and Southern Europe in 2021 but further decreased in the United States, Chile and Eastern Europe in the same year. In 2022 and after, lost life expectancy years in the United States, Chile and Eastern Europe were slowly regained; however, as of 7^th May 2023, life expectancy in 22 of the 27 countries had not fully recovered to its pre-pandemic level. The reduced life expectancy in 2020 was mainly driven by reduced life expectancy at age 65+, while that in subsequent years was mainly driven by reduced life expectancy at age 45-74. Women experienced a lower reduction in life expectancy at most ages but a greater reduction at age 85+.

Conclusions: The pandemic has caused substantial short-term mortality variations during 2019-2023 in the 27 countries studied. Although most of the 27 countries experienced increased life expectancy after 2022, life expectancy in 22 countries still has not entirely regained its pre-pandemic level by May 2023. Threats of COVID-19 are more prominent for older adults and men, but special attention is needed for women aged 85+ years.

Keywords: COVID-19; Decomposition; Gender and geographic differences; Life expectancy; Mortality change.

Fig. 1

Changes in life expectancy at age 5 (LE_5) in 27 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic Note: Data of 2023 above are as of 7^th May 2023.

Fig. 2

Decomposition results of changes in life expectancy at age 5 (a) during 2019 and 2020 and (b) during 2021 and 2020 in 27 countries.

Fig. 3

Decomposition results of changes in life expectancy at age 5 (a) during 2021 and 2022 and (b) during 2022 and 2023 (as of 7^th May 2023) in 27 countries.