Distinct clinico-molecular arterial and venous thrombosis scores for myeloproliferative neoplasms risk stratification

Abstract

Current recommended risk scores to predict thrombotic events associated with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) do not discriminate between arterial and venous thrombosis despite their different physiopathology. To define novel stratification systems, we delineated a comprehensive landscape of MPN associated thrombosis across a large long-term follow-up MPN cohort. Prior arterial thrombosis, age >60 years, cardiovascular risk factors and presence of TET2 or DNMT3A mutations were independently associated with arterial thrombosis in multivariable analysis. ARTS, an ARterial Thrombosis Score, based on these four factors, defined low- (0.37% patients-year) and high-risk (1.19% patients-year) patients. ARTS performance was superior to the two-tiered conventional risk stratification in our training cohort, across all MPN subtypes, as well as in two external validation cohorts. Prior venous thrombosis and presence of a JAK2^V617F mutation with a variant allelic frequency ≥50% were independently associated with venous thrombosis. The discrimination potential of VETS, a VEnous Thrombosis Score based on these two factors, was poor, similar to the two-tiered conventional risk stratification. Our study pinpoints arterial and venous thrombosis clinico-molecular differences and proposes an arterial risk score for more accurate patients' stratification. Further improvement of venous risk scores, accounting for additional factors and considering venous thrombosis as a heterogeneous entity is warranted.