Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2024 Sep;20(5):1566-1574.
doi: 10.1002/ieam.4886. Epub 2024 Jan 31.

Mechanistic population models for ecological risk assessment and decision support: The importance of good conceptual model diagrams

Valery E Forbes  1 , Chiara Accolla  2 , Thomas Banitz  3 , Kristin Crouse  4 , Nika Galic  5 , Volker Grimm  3 , Sandy Raimondo  6 , Amelie Schmolke  2 , Maxime Vaugeois  7
Affiliations

Mechanistic population models for ecological risk assessment and decision support: The importance of good conceptual model diagrams

Valery E Forbes et al. Integr Environ Assess Manag. 2024 Sep.

Abstract

The use of mechanistic population models as research and decision-support tools in ecology and ecological risk assessment (ERA) is increasing. This growth has been facilitated by advances in technology, allowing the simulation of more complex systems, as well as by standardized approaches for model development, documentation, and evaluation. Mechanistic population models are particularly useful for simulating complex systems, but the required model complexity can make them challenging to communicate. Conceptual diagrams that summarize key model elements, as well as elements that were considered but not included, can facilitate communication and understanding of models and increase their acceptance as decision-support tools. Currently, however, there are no consistent standards for creating or presenting conceptual model diagrams (CMDs), and both terminology and content vary widely. Here, we argue that greater consistency in CMD development and presentation is an important component of good modeling practice, and we provide recommendations, examples, and a free web app (pop-cmd.com) for achieving this for population models used for decision support in ERAs. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:1566-1574. © 2023 SETAC.

Keywords: Good modeling practice; Mechanistic effect models; Model visualization; Pop‐GUIDE; pop‐cmd.com.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Conceptual model diagram (called a flow chart) from Meli et al. (2013) for an agent-based population model of the collembolan, Folsomia candida, that was used to explore the potential consequences of spatially heterogeneous exposure to heavy metals on population dynamics. The diagram shows the processes executed by individuals in the model. Republished with permission.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Conceptual model diagram (called a flow chart) from Schmolke et al. (2017) for an agent-based population model of the threatened terrestrial plant, Boltonia decurrens, that was used to explore the potential consequences of pesticide exposure, intra- and inter-specific competition, and flooding, on population dynamics. The diagram shows the main model processes (rectangles) and life stages (ellipses). Republished with permission.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Conceptual model diagram (called a visual ODD) from Grimm et al. (2020; based on an unpublished manuscript by Milles et al. (2020)) for an agent-based model designed to explore how intraspecific variation in personality-related movement behavior promotes coexistence. The figure provides an overview of the entities and how they are initialized, the processes and their scheduling, and the key model output (observation). Republished with permission.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Conceptual model diagram for an ABM of lake sturgeon based on Dynamic Energy Budget theory to explore how contaminants of emerging concern may impact sturgeon populations. Reprinted with permission from Vaugeois et al. 2022
Figure 5.
Figure 5.
Standard template for a CMD. See text for details.
Figure 6.
Figure 6.
Conceptual model diagrams created with the CMD APP (cmd.umn.edu). A) The top figure shows a CMD for the Boltonia decurrens population model from Schmolke et al. (2017). B) The bottom figure shows a CMD for the fathead minnow population model from Raimondo et al. (2021). See text for details.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Accolla C, Vaugeois M, Grimm V, Moore AP, Rueda-Cediel P, Schmolke A, Forbes VE. 2021. A review of key features and their implementation in unstructured, structured, and agent-based population models for ecological risk assessment. Integr Environ Assess Manag 17: 521–540. - PubMed
    1. Banitz T, Hertz T, Johansson L-G, Lindkvist E, Martínez-Peña R, Radosavljevic S, Schlüter M, Wennberg K, Ylikoski PK, Grimm V. 2022.Visualization of causation in social-ecological systems. Ecol Soc 27 (1): 31–48.
    1. Beaudouin R, Monod G, Ginot V. 2008. Selecting parameters for calibration via sensitivity analysis: An individual-based model of mosquitofish population dynamics. Ecol Model 218: 29–48.
    1. EFSA (European Food Safety Authority) 2014. Scientific opinion on good modelling practice in the context of mechanistic effect models for risk assessment of plant protection products. EFSA J 12:3589.
    1. EFSA (European Food Safety Authority) 2023a. Adriaanse P, Arce A, Focks A, Ingels B, Jölli D, Lambin S, Rundlöf, Süβenbach D, Del Aguila M, Ercolano V, Ferilli F, Ippolito A, Szentes Cs, Neri FM, Padovani L, Rortais A, Wassenberg J and Auteri D, 2023. Revised guidance on the risk assessment of plant protection products on bees (Apis mellifera, Bombus spp. and solitary bees). EFSA J 21(5):7989, 10.2903/j.efsa.2023.7989. - DOI - PMC - PubMed

LinkOut - more resources