Application progress of ensemble forecast technology in influenza forecast based on infectious disease model

Abstract

To comprehensively understand the application progress of ensemble forecast technology in influenza forecast based on infectious disease model, so as to provide scientific references for further research. In this study, two keywords of "influenza" and "ensemble forecast" are selected to search and select the relevant literatures, which are then outlined and summarized. It is found that: In recent years, some studies about ensemble forecast technology for influenza have been reported in the literature, and some well-performed influenza ensemble forecast systems have already been operationally implemented and provide references for scientific prevention and control. In general, ensemble forecast can well represent various uncertainties in forecasting influenza cases based on infectious disease models, and can achieve more accurate forecasts and more valuable information than single deterministic forecast. However, there are still some shortcomings in the current studies, it is suggested that scientists engaged in influenza forecast based on infectious disease models strengthen cooperation with scholars in the field of numerical weather forecast, which is expected to further improve the skills and application level of ensemble forecast for influenza.

Keywords: ensemble forecast; infectious disease; influenza; numerical weather forecast; respiratory disease.

Figure 1

The schematic diagram of ensemble forecast (Black line: deterministic forecast; Blue line: ensemble members’ forecasts; Red dotted line: observation).