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. 2023 Dec 28:16:2943-2952.
doi: 10.2147/RMHP.S445162. eCollection 2023.

Forecasting Head and Neck Cancer Trends in GCC Countries: Implications for Public Health Policy and Strategy

Alla Alsharif #  1 , Maha T Alsharif #  2 , Meyassara Samman #  3 , Nada Binmadi #  2 , Saba Kassim #  1 , Samah Mourad #  4 , Saman Warnakulasuriya #  5   6
Affiliations

Forecasting Head and Neck Cancer Trends in GCC Countries: Implications for Public Health Policy and Strategy

Alla Alsharif et al. Risk Manag Healthc Policy. .

Abstract

Purpose: The data available on the incidence and mortality rates of head and neck cancer types (HNCs) in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC) have relied on global trends and covered only certain cancer sites, types or certain age groups. This study aimed to assess the incidence and mortality rates of head and neck cancer (HNCs) within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, providing insights into their geographic variability in 2020.

Methods: Prediction of the magnitude of the disease to 2040 was explored based on demographic projections. Estimates of incidence and mortality and the population projections were extracted from the Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) database and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs respectively for the time frame 2020 to 2040. Additionally, we analyzed the distribution of cases and deaths by age and sex for both time periods.

Results: The analysis indicates varying patterns in HNC rates across GCC countries in 2020, with Oman and Saudi Arabia carrying the highest burden. Projections for 2040 reveal a substantial increase in new HNC cases and related deaths, particularly in Qatar, UAE, and Bahrain. Furthermore, incidence rates are predicted to rise significantly for individuals aged 50 and older, while remaining relatively stable for those under 50. With regards to sex, males generally exhibit higher rates, except in Qatar.

Conclusion: HNC burden is anticipated to rise significantly in the GCC, with variations per age, sex and geographical location. By 2040, a 2-3-fold increase in HNCs in the GCC is anticipated, emphasizing the need for focused public health strategies to address this rising health challenge.

Keywords: cancer prevention; globocan; head and neck neoplasms; projection.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors report no conflicts of interest in this work.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Estimated number of new cases and death cases of head and neck cancers and the percentage of change from 2020 to 2040 by country.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Estimated number of new cases and death cases of head and neck cancers and the percentage of change from 2020 to 2040 by country and age groups. (a) Estimated number of HNC new cases for those aged between 0 to 49 years, (b) Estimated number of HNC new cases for those aged 50 years and older, (c) Estimated number of HNC death cases for those aged between 0 to 49 years, and (d) Estimated number of HNC death cases for those aged 50 years and older.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Estimated number of new cases and death cases of head and neck cancers and the percentage of change from 2020 to 2040 by country and sex. (a) Estimated number of new HNC cases among males, (b) Estimated number of new HNC cases among females, (c) Estimated number of HNC death cases among males, and (d) Estimated number of HNC death cases among females.
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