A Predictive Model of Failure to Rescue After Thoracolumbar Fusion

Abstract

Objective: Although failure to rescue (FTR) has been utilized as a quality-improvement metric in several surgical specialties, its current utilization in spine surgery is limited. Our study aims to identify the patient characteristics that are independent predictors of FTR among thoracolumbar fusion (TLF) patients.

Methods: Patients who underwent TLF were identified using relevant diagnostic and procedural codes from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database from 2011-2020. Frailty was assessed using the risk analysis index (RAI). FTR was defined as death, within 30 days, following a major complication. Univariate and multivariable analyses were used to compare baseline characteristics and early postoperative sequelae across FTR and non-FTR cohorts. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to assess the discriminatory accuracy of the frailty-driven predictive model for FTR.

Results: The study cohort (N = 15,749) had a median age of 66 years (interquartile range, 15 years). Increasing frailty, as measured by the RAI, was associated with an increased likelihood of FTR: odds ratio (95% confidence interval [CI]) is RAI 21-25, 1.3 [0.8-2.2]; RAI 26-30, 4.0 [2.4-6.6]; RAI 31-35, 7.0 [3.8-12.7]; RAI 36-40, 10.0 [4.9-20.2]; RAI 41- 45, 21.5 [9.1-50.6]; RAI ≥ 46, 45.8 [14.8-141.5]. The frailty-driven predictive model for FTR demonstrated outstanding discriminatory accuracy (C-statistic = 0.92; CI, 0.89-0.95).

Conclusion: Baseline frailty, as stratified by type of postoperative complication, predicts FTR with outstanding discriminatory accuracy in TLF patients. This frailty-driven model may inform patients and clinicians of FTR risk following TLF and help guide postoperative care after a major complication.

Keywords: Frailty; NSQIP; Outcomes; Risk analysis index; Spine surgery; Thoracolumbar fusion.

Fig. 1.

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the multivariable predictive model on the primary outcome, failure to rescue, American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program 2011–2020.