An interactive web application to identify early Parkinsonian non-tremor-dominant subtypes

Abstract

Background: Parkinson's disease (PD) patients with tremor-dominant (TD) and non-tremor-dominant (NTD) subtypes exhibit heterogeneity. Rapid identification of different motor subtypes may help to develop personalized treatment plans.

Methods: The data were acquired from the Parkinson's Disease Progression Marker Initiative (PPMI). Following the identification of predictors utilizing recursive feature elimination (RFE), seven classical machine learning (ML) models, including logistic regression, support vector machine, decision tree, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, etc., were trained to predict patients' motor subtypes, evaluating the performance of models through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and validating by the follow-up data.

Results: The feature subset engendered by RFE encompassed 20 features, comprising some clinical assessments and cerebrospinal fluid α-synuclein (CSF α-syn). ML models fitted in the RFE subset performed better in the test and validation sets. The best performing model was support vector machines with the polynomial kernel (P-SVM), achieving an AUC of 0.898. Five-fold repeated cross-validation showed the P-SVM model with CSF α-syn performed better than the model without CSF α-syn (P = 0.034). The Shapley additive explanation plot (SHAP) illustrated that how the levels of each feature affect the predicted probability as NTD subtypes.

Conclusion: An interactive web application was developed based on the P-SVM model constructed from feature subset by RFE. It can identify the current motor subtypes of PD patients, making it easier to understand the status of patients and develop personalized treatment plans.

Keywords: Alpha-synuclein; Biomarker; Machine learning; Motor subtypes; Parkinson’s disease.