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. 2024 Jan 5:14:04025.
doi: 10.7189/jogh.14.04025.

Burdens of stomach and esophageal cancer from 1990 to 2019 and projection to 2030 in China: Findings from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study

Qianwei Jiang #  1 , Yiyang Shu #  2 , Zhongyi Jiang #  3 , Yanqiang Zhang  1 , Siwei Pan  1 , Weihao Jiang  3 , Jinxiao Liang  4 , Xiangdong Cheng  1   5 , Zhiyuan Xu  1
Affiliations

Burdens of stomach and esophageal cancer from 1990 to 2019 and projection to 2030 in China: Findings from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study

Qianwei Jiang et al. J Glob Health. .

Abstract

Background: Stomach and esophageal cancer exhibit high morbidity and mortality rate in China, resulting in substantial disease burdens. It is imperative to identify the temporal trends of stomach and esophageal cancer from 1990 to 2019 and project future trends until 2030, which can provide valuable information for planning effective management and prevention strategies.

Methods: We collected and analysed data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) between 1990 and 2019, including incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), mortality rate (ASMR) and DALYs rate. We also calculated and reported the proportion of mortality and DALYs attributable to risk factors by sex in China and different regions. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project future trends until 2030.

Results: The new cases, deaths and DALYs of stomach and esophageal cancer increased from 1990 to 2019. However, the ASIR, ASMR and age-standardised DALYs rates for stomach and esophageal cancer all decreased during the same period. These changes may be related to risks, such as smoking and diet. Furthermore, we utilised the projection model to estimate that the ASIR and ASMR of stomach and esophageal cancer among females will likely follow steady downward trends, while the ASMR of stomach cancer among males is expected to exhibit a significant decline. However, the ASIR of stomach and esophageal cancer and the ASMR of esophageal cancer among males are projected to display slight upward trends until 2030.

Conclusions: The analysis of stomach and esophageal cancer trends in China from 1990 to 2030 reveals a general decline. However, it is crucial to acknowledge the persistent high burden of both cancers in the country. Adopting healthy lifestyle practices, including the reduction of tobacco and alcohol intake, avoidance of moldy foods and increased consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables can contribute to mitigating the risk of stomach and esophageal cancer. Significantly, the formulation and implementation of well-founded and efficacious public health policies are imperative for alleviating the disease burden in China.

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Conflict of interest statement

Disclosure of interest: The authors have completed the ICMJE Disclosure of Interest Form (available upon request from the corresponding author) and disclose no relevant interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The age-specific incidence, mortality and DALYs rate of stomach and esophageal cancer by age and gender in China in 2019. Panel A. The age-specific incidence rate of stomach cancer. Panel B. The age-specific mortality rate of stomach cancer. Panel C. The age-specific DALYs rate of stomach cancer. Panel D. The age-specific incidence rate of esophageal cancer. Panel E. The age-specific mortality rate of esophageal cancer. Panel F. The age-specific DALYs rate of esophageal cancer. DALYs, disability-adjusted life years, DALY – disability-adjusted life years
Figure 2
Figure 2
The age-standardised incidence, mortality and DALYs rate of stomach and esophageal cancer in 1990-2019. Panel A. The ASIR of stomach cancer. Panel B. The ASMR of stomach cancer. Panel C. The age-standardised DALYs rate of stomach cancer. Panel D. The ASIR of esophageal cancer. Panel E. The ASMR of esophageal cancer. Panel F. The age-standardised DALYs rate of esophageal cancer. ASIR – the age-standardised incidence rate, ASMR – the age-standardised mortality rate, DALYs – disability-adjusted life years
Figure 3
Figure 3
Proportion of stomach cancer DALYs and deaths attributable to risk factors, for global, China and 15 regions in 2019 by sex. Panel A. Stomach cancer in females. Panel B. Stomach cancer in males. DALYs – disability-adjusted life years
Figure 4
Figure 4
Proportion of esophageal cancer DALYs and deaths attributable to risk factors, for global, China and 15 regions in 2019 by sex. Panel A. Esophageal cancer in females. Panel B. Esophageal cancer in males. DALYs – disability-adjusted life years
Figure 5
Figure 5
The change trends of the cancer-related disease burden by sex from 1990 to 2030 in China. Panel A. The ASIR of stomach cancer among females. Panel B. The ASIR of stomach cancer among males. Panel C. The ASMR of stomach cancer among females. Panel D. The ASMR of stomach cancer among females. Panel E. The ASIR of esophageal cancer among females. Panel F. The ASIR of esophageal cancer among males. Panel G. The ASMR of esophageal cancer among females. Panel H. The ASMR of esophageal cancer among males. ASIR – the age-standardised incidence rate, ASMR – the age-standardised mortality rate
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