Three-Dimensional Margin as a Predictor of Local Tumor Progression after Microwave Ablation: Intraprocedural versus 4-8-Week Postablation Assessment

Abstract

Purpose: To evaluate the prognostic accuracy of intraprocedural and 4-8-week (current standard) post-microwave ablation zone (AZ) and margin assessments for prediction of local tumor progression (LTP) using 3-dimensional (3D) software.

Materials and methods: Data regarding 100 colorectal liver metastases (CLMs) in 75 patients were collected from 2 prospective fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT)-guided microwave ablation (MWA) trials. The target CLMs and theoretical 5- and 10-mm margins were segmented and registered intraprocedurally and at 4-8 weeks after MWA contrast-enhanced CT (or magnetic resonance [MR] imaging) using the same methodology and 3D software. Tumor and 5- and 10-mm minimal margin (MM) volumes not covered by the AZ were defined as volumes of insufficient coverage (VICs). The intraprocedural and 4-8-week post-MWA VICs were compared as predictors of LTP using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.

Results: The median follow-up time was 19.6 months (interquartile range, 7.97-36.5 months). VICs for 5- and 10-mm MMs were predictive of LTP at both time assessments. The highest accuracy for the prediction of LTP was documented with the intra-ablation 5-mm VIC (area under the curve [AUC], 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.89). LTP for a VIC of 6-10-mm margin category was 11.4% compared with 4.3% for >10-mm margin category (P < .001).

Conclusions: A 3D 5-mm MM is a critical endpoint of thermal ablation, whereas optimal local tumor control is noted with a 10-mm MM. Higher AUCs for prediction of LTP were achieved for intraprocedural evaluation than for the 4-8-week postablation 3D evaluation of the AZ.