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Meta-Analysis
. 2024 Mar;35(3):469-494.
doi: 10.1007/s00198-023-07012-1. Epub 2024 Jan 17.

A meta-analysis of previous falls and subsequent fracture risk in cohort studies

Liesbeth Vandenput  1 Helena Johansson  1   2   3 Eugene V McCloskey  2   4 Enwu Liu  1 Marian Schini  5 Kristina E Åkesson  6   7 Fred A Anderson  8 Rafael Azagra  9   10   11   12 Cecilie L Bager  13 Charlotte Beaudart  14   15 Heike A Bischoff-Ferrari  16   17 Emmanuel Biver  18 Olivier Bruyère  14 Jane A Cauley  19 Jacqueline R Center  20   21   22 Roland Chapurlat  23 Claus Christiansen  13 Cyrus Cooper  24   25   26 Carolyn J Crandall  27 Steven R Cummings  28 José A P da Silva  29   30 Bess Dawson-Hughes  31 Adolfo Diez-Perez  32 Alyssa B Dufour  33   34 John A Eisman  20   21   22 Petra J M Elders  35 Serge Ferrari  18 Yuki Fujita  36 Saeko Fujiwara  37 Claus-Christian Glüer  38 Inbal Goldshtein  39   40 David Goltzman  41 Vilmundur Gudnason  42   43 Jill Hall  44 Didier Hans  45 Mari Hoff  46   47 Rosemary J Hollick  48 Martijn Huisman  49   50 Masayuki Iki  51 Sophia Ish-Shalom  52 Graeme Jones  53 Magnus K Karlsson  6   54 Sundeep Khosla  55 Douglas P Kiel  34   56 Woon-Puay Koh  57   58 Fjorda Koromani  59   60 Mark A Kotowicz  61   62   63 Heikki Kröger  64   65 Timothy Kwok  66   67 Olivier Lamy  68   69 Arnulf Langhammer  70 Bagher Larijani  71 Kurt Lippuner  72 Fiona E A McGuigan  6 Dan Mellström  73   74 Thomas Merlijn  35 Tuan V Nguyen  22   75   76 Anna Nordström  77   78   79 Peter Nordström  80 Terence W O'Neill  81   82 Barbara Obermayer-Pietsch  83   84 Claes Ohlsson  3   85 Eric S Orwoll  86 Julie A Pasco  61   62   63   87 Fernando Rivadeneira  59 Anne-Marie Schott  88 Eric J Shiroma  89 Kristin Siggeirsdottir  42   90 Eleanor M Simonsick  91 Elisabeth Sornay-Rendu  23 Reijo Sund  65 Karin M A Swart  92   93 Pawel Szulc  23 Junko Tamaki  94 David J Torgerson  95 Natasja M van Schoor  49 Tjeerd P van Staa  96 Joan Vila  97 Nicholas J Wareham  98 Nicole C Wright  99 Noriko Yoshimura  100 MCarola Zillikens  59 Marta Zwart  12   101   102   103 Nicholas C Harvey  24   25 Mattias Lorentzon  1   3   104 William D Leslie  105 John A Kanis  106   107
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Free article
Meta-Analysis

A meta-analysis of previous falls and subsequent fracture risk in cohort studies

Liesbeth Vandenput et al. Osteoporos Int. 2024 Mar.
Free article

Abstract

The relationship between self-reported falls and fracture risk was estimated in an international meta-analysis of individual-level data from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were associated with an increased fracture risk in women and men and should be considered as an additional risk factor in the FRAX® algorithm.

Introduction: Previous falls are a well-documented risk factor for subsequent fracture but have not yet been incorporated into the FRAX algorithm. The aim of this study was to evaluate, in an international meta-analysis, the association between previous falls and subsequent fracture risk and its relation to sex, age, duration of follow-up, and bone mineral density (BMD).

Methods: The resource comprised 906,359 women and men (66.9% female) from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were uniformly defined as any fall occurring during the previous year in 43 cohorts; the remaining three cohorts had a different question construct. The association between previous falls and fracture risk (any clinical fracture, osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture) was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and each sex, followed by random-effects meta-analyses of the weighted beta coefficients.

Results: Falls in the past year were reported in 21.4% of individuals. During a follow-up of 9,102,207 person-years, 87,352 fractures occurred of which 19,509 were hip fractures. A previous fall was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture both in women (hazard ratio (HR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-1.51) and men (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.41-1.67). The HRs were of similar magnitude for osteoporotic, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture. Sex significantly modified the association between previous fall and fracture risk, with predictive values being higher in men than in women (e.g., for major osteoporotic fracture, HR 1.53 (95% CI 1.27-1.84) in men vs. HR 1.32 (95% CI 1.20-1.45) in women, P for interaction = 0.013). The HRs associated with previous falls decreased with age in women and with duration of follow-up in men and women for most fracture outcomes. There was no evidence of an interaction between falls and BMD for fracture risk. Subsequent risk for a major osteoporotic fracture increased with each additional previous fall in women and men.

Conclusions: A previous self-reported fall confers an increased risk of fracture that is largely independent of BMD. Previous falls should be considered as an additional risk factor in future iterations of FRAX to improve fracture risk prediction.

Keywords: fracture risk; hip fracture; major osteoporotic fracture; meta-analysis; previous falls; risk factors.

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