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. 2024 Jan 18;18(1):e0011884.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011884. eCollection 2024 Jan.

Seasonal prediction of the distribution of three major malaria vectors in China: Based on an ecological niche model

Qi An  1   2 , Yuepeng Li  1   2 , Zhuo Sun  1   2 , Xiang Gao  1   2 , Hongbin Wang  1   2
Affiliations

Seasonal prediction of the distribution of three major malaria vectors in China: Based on an ecological niche model

Qi An et al. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. .

Abstract

Against the backdrop of a global malaria epidemic that remains severe, China has eradicated indigenous malaria but still has to be alert to the risk of external importation. Understanding the distribution of vectors can provide an adequate and reliable basis for the development and implementation of vector control strategies. However, with the decline of malaria prevalence in recent years, the capacity of vector monitoring and identification has been greatly weakened. Here we have used new sampling records, climatic data, and topographic data to establish ecological niche models of the three main malaria vectors in China. The model results accurately identified the current habitat suitability areas for the three species of Anopheles and revealed that in addition to precipitation and temperature as important variables affecting the distribution of Anopheles mosquitoes, topographic variables also influenced the distribution of Anopheles mosquitoes. Anopheles sinensis is the most widespread malaria vector in China, with a wide region from the northeast (Heilongjiang Province) to the southwest (Yunnan Province) suitable for its survival. Suitable habitat areas for Anopheles lesteri are concentrated in the central, eastern, and southern regions of China. The suitable habitat areas of Anopheles minimus are the smallest and are only distributed in the border provinces of southern China. On this basis, we further assessed the seasonal variation in habitat suitability areas for these three major malaria vectors in China. The results of this study provide new and more detailed evidence for vector monitoring. In this new era of imported malaria prevention in China, regular reassessment of the risk of vector transmission is recommended.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Map of the distribution points of the three malaria vectors in China.
The red points depict Anopheles sinensis, the blue points depict Anopheles minimus, and the yellow points depict Anopheles lesteri. The base layer of the map is sourced from the National Catalogue Service For Geographic Information of the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China (https://www.webmap.cn/mapDataAction.do?method=forw&resType=5&storeId=2&storeName=%E5%9B%BD%E5%AE%B6%E5%9F%BA%E7%A1%80%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%86%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E4%B8%AD%E5%BF%83&fileId=BA420C422A254198BAA5ABAB9CAAFBC1).
Fig 2
Fig 2. Habitat suitability map for Anopheles sinensis in China.
The darker colors depict areas of high suitability while lighter colors depict areas of low suitability. The base layer of the map is sourced from the National Catalogue Service For Geographic Information of the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China (https://www.webmap.cn/mapDataAction.do?method=forw&resType=5&storeId=2&storeName=%E5%9B%BD%E5%AE%B6%E5%9F%BA%E7%A1%80%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%86%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E4%B8%AD%E5%BF%83&fileId=BA420C422A254198BAA5ABAB9CAAFBC1).
Fig 3
Fig 3. Monthly habitat suitability map for Anopheles sinensis in China.
The darker colors depict areas of high suitability while lighter colors depict areas of low suitability. The base layer of the map is sourced from the National Catalogue Service For Geographic Information of the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China (https://www.webmap.cn/mapDataAction.do?method=forw&resType=5&storeId=2&storeName=%E5%9B%BD%E5%AE%B6%E5%9F%BA%E7%A1%80%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%86%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E4%B8%AD%E5%BF%83&fileId=BA420C422A254198BAA5ABAB9CAAFBC1).
Fig 4
Fig 4. Habitat suitability map for Anopheles lesteri in China.
The darker colors depict areas of high suitability while lighter colors depict areas of low suitability. The base layer of the map is sourced from the National Catalogue Service For Geographic Information of the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China (https://www.webmap.cn/mapDataAction.do?method=forw&resType=5&storeId=2&storeName=%E5%9B%BD%E5%AE%B6%E5%9F%BA%E7%A1%80%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%86%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E4%B8%AD%E5%BF%83&fileId=BA420C422A254198BAA5ABAB9CAAFBC1).
Fig 5
Fig 5. Monthly habitat suitability map for Anopheles lesteri in China.
The darker colors depict areas of high suitability while lighter colors depict areas of low suitability. The base layer of the map is sourced from the National Catalogue Service For Geographic Information of the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China (https://www.webmap.cn/mapDataAction.do?method=forw&resType=5&storeId=2&storeName=%E5%9B%BD%E5%AE%B6%E5%9F%BA%E7%A1%80%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%86%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E4%B8%AD%E5%BF%83&fileId=BA420C422A254198BAA5ABAB9CAAFBC1).
Fig 6
Fig 6. Habitat suitability map for Anopheles minimus in China.
The darker colors depict areas of high suitability while lighter colors depict areas of low suitability. The base layer of the map is sourced from the National Catalogue Service For Geographic Information of the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China (https://www.webmap.cn/mapDataAction.do?method=forw&resType=5&storeId=2&storeName=%E5%9B%BD%E5%AE%B6%E5%9F%BA%E7%A1%80%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%86%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E4%B8%AD%E5%BF%83&fileId=BA420C422A254198BAA5ABAB9CAAFBC1).
Fig 7
Fig 7. Monthly habitat suitability map for Anopheles minimus in China.
The darker colors depict areas of high suitability while lighter colors depict areas of low suitability. The base layer of the map is sourced from the National Catalogue Service For Geographic Information of the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China (https://www.webmap.cn/mapDataAction.do?method=forw&resType=5&storeId=2&storeName=%E5%9B%BD%E5%AE%B6%E5%9F%BA%E7%A1%80%E5%9C%B0%E7%90%86%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E4%B8%AD%E5%BF%83&fileId=BA420C422A254198BAA5ABAB9CAAFBC1).
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