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. 2024 May;15(5):623-633.
doi: 10.1111/jdi.14146. Epub 2024 Jan 24.

Type 1 and type 2 diabetes mortality burden: Predictions for 2030 based on Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis of China and global mortality burden from 1990 to 2019

Chunping Dong  1 , Guifu Wu  1 , Hui Li  1 , Yuan Qiao  1 , Shan Gao  1
Affiliations

Type 1 and type 2 diabetes mortality burden: Predictions for 2030 based on Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis of China and global mortality burden from 1990 to 2019

Chunping Dong et al. J Diabetes Investig. 2024 May.

Abstract

Aims: This study assessed diabetes (type 1 and type 2) mortality in China and globally from 1990 to 2019, predicting the next decade's trends.

Materials and methods: Data came from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) for diabetes (type 1 and type 2) during 1990-2019 was calculated. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model predicted diabetes (type 1 and type 2) mortality from 2020 to 2030.

Results: In China, type 1 diabetes deaths declined from 6,005 to 4,504 cases (AAPC -2.827), while type 2 diabetes deaths rose from 64,084 to 168,388 cases (AAPC -0.763) from 1990 to 2019. Globally, type 1 diabetes deaths increased from 55,417 to 78,236 cases (AAPC 0.223), and type 2 diabetes deaths increased from 606,407 to 1,472,934 cases (AAPC 0.365). Both China and global trends showed declining type 1 diabetes ASMR. However, female type 2 diabetes ASMR in China initially increased and then decreased, while males had a rebound trend. Peak type 1 diabetes deaths were in the 40-44 age group, and type 2 diabetes peaked in those over 70. BAPC predicted declining diabetes (type 1 and type 2) mortality burden in China and globally over the next 10 years.

Conclusions: Type 2 diabetes mortality remained high in China and globally despite decreasing type 1 diabetes mortality over 30 years. Predictions suggest a gradual decrease in diabetes mortality over the next decade, highlighting the need for continued focus on type 2 diabetes prevention and treatment.

Keywords: China; Diabetes; Mortality rate.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Joinpoint regression analysis of ASMR for type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes in China and globally from 1990 to 2019. (a) Type 1 diabetes in China; (b) Type 2 diabetes in China; (c) Type 1 diabetes globally; (d) Type 2 diabetes globally. (a) *Indicates that the annual percent change (APC) is significantly different from zero at the α = 0.05 level. Final Selected Model: 5 Joinpoints; (b) *Indicates that the annual percent change (APC) is significantly different from zero at the α = 0.05 level. Final Selected Model: 3 Joinpoints; (c) *Indicates that the annual percent change (APC) is significantly different from zero at the α = 0.05 level. Final Selected Model: 4 Joinpoints; (d) *Indicates that the annual percent change (APC) is significantly different from zero at the α = 0.05 level. Final Selected Model: 2 Joinpoints.
Figure 2
Figure 2
ASMR trends for type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes in China and globally from 1990 to 2019. (a) Type 1 diabetes; (b) Type 2 diabetes.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The number of deaths and ASMR for type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes in China and globally in different age groups in 1990 and 2019. (a) Type 1 diabetes globally; (b) Type 1 diabetes in China; (c) Type 2 diabetes globally; (d) Type 2 diabetes in China.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Predictions for ASMR of type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes in China and globally from 2020 to 2030. (a) Type 1 diabetes in China; (b) Type 2 diabetes in China; (c) Type 1 diabetes globally; (d) Type 2 diabetes globally.
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