Predictive usefulness of qSOFA, NEWS and GYM scores in the elderly patient: EDEN-5 study

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the prognostic accuracy of the scores NEWS, qSOFA, GYM used in hospital emergency department (ED) in the assessment of elderly patients who consult for an infectious disease.

Methods: Data from the EDEN (Emergency Department and Elderly Need) cohort were used. This retrospective cohort included all patients aged ≥65 years seen in 52 Spanish EDs during two weeks (from 1-4-2019 to 7-4-2019 and 30/3/2020 to 5/4/2020) with an infectious disease diagnosis in the emergency department. Demographic variables, demographic variables, comorbidities, Charlson and Barthel index and needed scores parameters were recorded. The predictive capacity for 30-day mortality of each scale was estimated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and sensitivity and specificity were calculated for different cut-off points. The primary outcome variable was 30-day mortality.

Results: 6054 patients were analyzed. Median age was 80 years (IQR 73-87) and 45.3% women. 993 (16,4%) patients died. NEWS score had better AUC than qSOFA (0.765, 95CI: 0.725-0.806, versus 0.700, 95%CI: 0.653-0.746; P < .001) and GYM (0.716, 95%CI: 0.675-0.758; P = .024), and there was no difference between qSOFA and GYM (P = .345). The highest sensitivity scores for 30-day mortality were GYM ≥ 1 point (85.4%) while the qSOFA score ≥2 points showed high specificity. In the case of the NEWS scale, the cut-off point ≥4 showed high sensitivity, while the cut-off point NEWS ≥ 8 showed high specificity.

Conclusion: NEWS score showed the highest predictive capacity for 30-day mortality. GYM score ≥1 showed a great sensitivity, while qSOFA ≥2 scores provide the highest specificity but lower sensitivity.

Keywords: 30-day mortality; Emergency department; Escalas; GYM; Infección; Infection; Mortalidad a 30 días; NEWS; Score; Sepsis; Urgencias; qSOFA.